I know NBA2K was selling 10M+ copies a year. I was never sure how many copies The Show was selling. I know it wasn't a big number when it was a Sony Exclusive. Even now, with the game going to Gamepass for Series, that has to affect the Xbox sales numbers. Not sure how well it sells on the Switch. That's why I think they made a big push for Diamond Dynasty and MTX in the Show. I think the top three sellers for sports games are EAFC(no one is topping them), NBA2K, and Madden. If EACFB could sit between Madden and the Show, that's the best case.
I'm not sure how much real college athletes is a seller. College Sports isn't as much as a player-driven sport like how professional sports are. I'm sure it's still a factor and will only help sales. But, I don't think there would've been an uproar if it was still QB#10 for Alabama. I feel unless it's a Zion Williamson-Duke or Tebow-Florida level popularity, that would swing sales if their names could've been in. I don't feel anyone in the next years has that type of name value.
I think as far as sales go, I still think if they could reach anything above 5M copies, that's a success. Even though the demand seems to be there, College Football is still a niche sport and the game will be current gen only. If it was a cross gen game, I definitely think it could add another 1-2M copies. But, I'm glad they didn't hold back the game in order to focus on more sales. Going current gen only will affect the other sports games as well. I still think EAFC will reach 10M plus because that's been the standard for the last 15+ years. But, I wouldn't be surprised if Madden and 2K drop to 7-9M copies