4th & 1 Discussion

[Feared]

Quote: Originally Posted by kehlis

I don't agree with the point of that article but the part of the post you bolded that you said doesn't make sense actually does to a degree and didn't have anything to do with punting from midfield. It said that if you are backed up in a short to go situation you actually might as well go for it because either way you are going to get either a first down or give it to them around midfield which to your point is 20 yards away from field goal range. My counter to that point however is that you are more likely to be giving up a touchdown versus a field goal if you don't make it.

Right don't know how I misread that; and yes I would say as a Coach/play caller it's not worth the risk of giving up 7, you have to have faith in your Defense holding to 3.

[Cardot]

Quote: Originally Posted by Feared

you have to have faith in your Defense holding to 3.

But not the faith in your offense to get 1 yard?

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cardot

But not the faith in your offense to get 1 yard?

On one play when you couldn't get many yards the 3 plays before that? Why should you?

I really need someone to explain why so many think it's easy to get one yard when a defense is playing to stop the run. It really seems like everyone going by these stats or saying it's easy is assuming the other team will play the same D on 4th and 1 that they'd play on any other down... besides maybe 3rd and 1... maybe.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

On one play when you couldn't get many yards the 3 plays before that? Why should you?

Amateur math alert. But using the same recency bias and small sample, there's a counter:

You don't need many yards on 4th & 1. If you're at a 4th & 1, that means you gained 9 yards on the previous 3 plays, so that's 3 yards per play. If you gained 3 yards per play on the 3 previous plays, why can't you gain 1 on the next?

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

I really need someone to explain why so many think it's easy to get one yard when a defense is playing to stop the run. It really seems like everyone going by these stats or saying it's easy is assuming the other team will play the same D on 4th and 1 that they'd play on any other down... besides maybe 3rd and 1... maybe.

I guess the assumption is made because, on average, the worst offenses in recent memory average 3 or 4 yards per play. If the defense loads up to stop the run, run a play to counter that. I mean... coach instead of auto-piloting your decision making. I don't understand why 4th down carries this mythical extra degree of difficulty. It's just football. If you average more than a yard a play on any other down, you should be able to get it on 4th down. Will you fail sometimes? Sure. But the data is OVERWHELMINGLY in favor of going for it.



The real discussion to be had is something like 4th and 4 or less. 4th & 1 is basically solved, one off scenarios aside, as far as optimum strategy is concerned.

[gerg1234]

Watching the Bears defense all season, I would encourage them to go for it on 4th and 1 every time.....but,

Watching the Bears offense this season, I would encourage them to punt.

But then again, with the Bears special teams, you're risking giving up a punt return TD.

Moral of the story, we suck.

[Cardot]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

I really need someone to explain why so many think it's easy to get one yard when a defense is playing to stop the run. It really seems like everyone going by these stats or saying it's easy is assuming the other team will play the same D on 4th and 1 that they'd play on any other down... besides maybe 3rd and 1... maybe.

I never said it was easy. But depending upon the situation, it may be easier than stopping the opponent in today's offensive oriented game. For example the highly debated 2009 NE vs. Indy game when Belichick went for it on 4th and 2 from the 28. I liked the call. Manning had been carving the NE defense in the 4th quarter. Brady picking up a fourth and two seemed a little "easier" than preventing Manning from driving 70 yards. Not to mention the defense still did have a chance to prevent Indy from driving 28 yards.

[Blzer]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

On one play when you couldn't get many yards the 3 plays before that? Why should you? I really need someone to explain why so many think it's easy to get one yard when a defense is playing to stop the run. It really seems like everyone going by these stats or saying it's easy is assuming the other team will play the same D on 4th and 1 that they'd play on any other down... besides maybe 3rd and 1... maybe.

If they play for run-stoppage, there are many offensive strategies you can employ:

1) Obviously, go for the PA pass (open TE in the flat).
2) Anticipate blitz, catch them offsides/on heels.
3) QB run.
4) Fake FB dive, HB toss
5) 5-wide, press your luck.
6) Fake punt/field goal.

I actually belong more in the camp that two-point conversions are not gone for enough either, but that's more difficult to campaign for with such little room to do anything with (only twelve yards of field play in front of you).

[dsallupinyaarea]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

I actually belong more in the camp that two-point conversions are not gone for enough either, but that's more difficult to campaign for with such little room to do anything with (only twelve yards of field play in front of you).

FWIW, most sports analytics sites/people claim the 2 pt conversion is severely underused.