4th & 1 Discussion

[ScoobySnax]

Quote: Originally Posted by kingkilla56

How do you calculate win percentage?

Wins/Total Games Played

EDIT: Nvr mind. Y'all on some deep ish in here. Lol

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by CM Hooe

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability. On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%. Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

I have no idea how to calculate this to this degree. Did you happen to calculate what the chance was after kicking the field goal?

If scoring a touchdown left them at 17% I'm very curious to see how low the FG left them at.

[Blzer]

Quote: Originally Posted by ScoobySnax

Wins/Total Games Played EDIT: Nvr mind. Y'all on some deep ish in here. Lol

Earlier I said to myself that someone will only see that post and take it entirely out of context.

[Blzer]

I'm going to try and watch for all 4th & 1 plays this Sunday.

Chargers just failed against Miami's defense on their 20 yard line. That's an example (that entire situation involved and no active RB1 or RB2) where a field goal has to be a given. They had downfield trouble that entire drive, though they made it down there it was on spurt plays and not progressively.

Three points given away and Miami given the ball. Not to say Miami will score here though, either. I just think that's too far away from the end zone still to go for it.

I only hope McCoy didn't read this thread in making his decision.

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

I'm going to try and watch for all 4th & 1 plays this Sunday. Chargers just failed against Miami's defense on their 20 yard line. That's an example (that entire situation involved and no active RB1 or RB2) where a field goal has to be a given. They had downfield trouble that entire drive, though they made it down there it was on spurt plays and not progressively. Three points given away and Miami given the ball. Not to say Miami will score here though, either. I just think that's too far away from the end zone still to go for it. I only hope McCoy didn't read this thread in making his decision.

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

[Jr.]

Quote: Originally Posted by kehlis

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

4 point swing.. gotta think the Dolphins would've scored a TD after a kickoff as well considering the field position was almost exactly the same (assuming a touchback)

[Blzer]

Quote: Originally Posted by kehlis

Dolphins touchdown, 10 point swing.

Welp, I guess that all but confirms I made that right call there. Once again, too far out to be taking that kind of risk, and not at all the right setup.

The worst part about it is he probably isn't allowed to go for it again the rest of the game without his job then being on the line if he doesn't convert. Ya'll have said it yourselves in this thread... aggression leads to questions needing be answered. Too bad this isn't a more accepted norm.

[Jr.]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

Welp, I guess that all but confirms I made that right call there. Once again, too far out to be taking that kind of risk, and not at all the right setup. The worst part about it is he probably isn't allowed to go for it again the rest of the game without his job then being on the line if he doesn't convert. Ya'll have said it yourselves in this thread... aggression leads to questions needing be answered. Too bad this isn't a more accepted norm.

Yep, they just punted on 4th and 1/2 a yard. Different situation as the ball was on their own 38ish, but Miami has the ball on their 40, so a 22 yard difference. Let's see how long it takes for them to make that difference up.

EDIT: 2 plays and Miami is at the Charger 32