4th & 1 Discussion

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Just to clarify, neither options were actually good. Given the Panthers inability to move the ball (I wasn't really watching but they had 7 pts in the 4Q so I'm making the assumption) and given the quality of QB on the other sideline, I just think you have to take your chances in that spot. Especially considering how much there is to gain by getting 7 there.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. Is it, "Neither option is good so go for it"?

There was A LOT to be gained by getting points there period, so don't really know why 1% of converting on 4th and 14 with no space behind that is better than the 90% chance of making the field goal... even if we extend it to consider how well the defense has been playing in both cases.

[dsallupinyaarea]

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower?

Basically that's my question.

If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount?

EDIT:

Alright so I've found this lovely thingajigger:

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.../live-wp-graph

We're basically both right.

(If I'm reading this right) If you go to the point in the graph (toward the end, upper right) where Gano kicks the FG, the Saints have a 92% chance to win the game. After the FG, they still have a 92% chance to win the game. Rivera didn't win the game but he didn't lose the game either. There is value in kicking the can in that situation. If he goes for it and fails, I suspect the Saints win expectancy is basically 99%.

This situation appears to be a matter of how much risk you can stomach on one play. Me, I'd take my chance on that one play because I feel like too many dominoes would have to fall right for you to win going the other route. I don't think there's a right or wrong here.

Apologies to Ron Rivera if he's reading this.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower? Basically that's my question. If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount?

I still don't understand. We know NOW that they lost the game. But when they kicked the field goal there were almost 13 minutes left in the game and they were down a TD (with a 2pt conversion) and a FG. The Saints then ran over 7 minutes off the clock before scoring another TD, putting them in an impossible situation either way.

Any coach would lose their job if they make a desperate play by going for it on 4th and 14 in that situation, and rightfully so.

BTW, if they took that shot and actually got the TD, the Saints 7 minute drive for another score still would've put the game out of reasonable reach. We can only look at the stakes at the time of the decision AND what happened after still doesn't make going for it make any more sense.

[dsallupinyaarea]

I swear I didn't know the result of the drive after. I didn't watch the game. I flipped to the game, saw that decision, made an "omg tweet" and flipped back to basketball. My 1st post didn't even reference how the game played out. All of my posts were based on my assumption that the Saints would do...... well what they did lol. I really try not to be results oriented about this stuff because that truly isn't fair to the coaches.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

I swear I didn't know the result of the drive after. I didn't watch the game. I flipped to the game, saw that decision, made an "omg tweet" and flipped back to basketball. My 1st post didn't even reference how the game played out. All of my posts were based on my assumption that the Saints would do...... well what they did lol. I really try not to be results oriented about this stuff because that truly isn't fair to the coaches.

I believe you man, I was breaking it down because you said that early... going back to the broad topic, my opinion is that something like this is one of a million situations that need to be evaluated individually. Obviously this is 4th and 14 and not 4th and short, but you're right that there are even situations like this that make sense going for it. I don't think a discussion can be had grouping every situation together.

[CM Hooe]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Did the 3 pts actually increase his chances to win or did they just make the bleeding slower? Basically that's my question. If they just make the bleeding slower, why not take a shot, however small, on an option that actually gives you a chance to win the game? Is the goal to win or lose by the least amount? EDIT: Alright so I've found this lovely thingajigger: http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.../live-wp-graph We're basically both right. (If I'm reading this right) If you go to the point in the graph (toward the end, upper right) where Gano kicks the FG, the Saints have a 92% chance to win the game. After the FG, they still have a 92% chance to win the game. Rivera didn't win the game but he didn't lose the game either. There is value in kicking the can in that situation. If he goes for it and fails, I suspect the Saints win expectancy is basically 99%. This situation appears to be a matter of how much risk you can stomach on one play. Me, I'd take my chance on that one play because I feel like too many dominoes would have to fall right for you to win going the other route. I don't think there's a right or wrong here. Apologies to Ron Rivera if he's reading this.

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability.

On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%.

Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

[rdnk]

Quote: Originally Posted by CM Hooe

Did the math, a failed conversion at that point puts the Saints at 97% win probability. On the other hand, a touchdown in that situation increases the Panthers' win chance to 17%. Ultimately, however, NFL games aren't played with calculators. One down to make 14 yards in any situation is a tall task in any context.

The win% split is +9/-5 on going for it. Conversion rate of 4th and 15+ is around 12%. I'm not getting enough value there to go for it. I'd have to be converting 4th and 15 around 33% to go for it there and if my team could do that, I probably wouldn't be down 21-7.

Kirk Ferentz would probably punt, however.

[kingkilla56]

How do you calculate win probability over the course of a game?