4th & 1 Discussion

[Cardot]

Fans and commentators will kill a coach for an aggressive call that goes wrong. But for whatever reason, they will give a pass for an equally conservative call that goes awry. It drives me crazy....especially in this day of high powered offenses.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

(I was typing up a thread and my browser automatically refreshed and deleted everything for no reason. Going to re-type something much shorter out of sheer frustration.) ----------------- I personally feel teams don't go for it enough on 4th down when there is a yard or less to go, particularly around midfield and the goal line. I understand the consequences of falling short in these scenarios, but I also think there are points left on the table that can pretty easily be obtained with a decent success rate. Granted, I'm not the one who has tracked the data on this, which is why I'm not an NFL head coach and which is probably also why they don't do it very much. But by impulse alone, I really feel like greed should consume those who see this as a positive opportunity. I mean we do it in video games so often despite the success rates, even if we play for realism/true challenge, or in online play. Does anyone else have more insight on why this just isn't called upon more often? Oh, and I think there really should be more fakes too.

I said this when we were talking about it in the Off Topic thread so it's interesting that you bring up video games. It's been a while but I remember playing the "go for it on 4th and short all the time" people. The experience often ended with me putting up lots of point quickly and them pulling the plug on the game before halftime.

It's like doubling down on a bet over and over. You can pull all the odds you want, but they can't account for the levels of consequences during the times it doesn't work. EXTREME example here but lets say it's 4th and inches on your own 5 yard line. Even if it's successful 99% of the time, in that situation being in the 1% would be devastating.

Again, that's an extreme example, but adjusting any number of variables to a "baseline" that will surely be different based on the team, opponent, score, etc, etc... very long list before we even get to coaching tendencies alone.

[SPTO]

Personally, on a 4th & 1 (or less) on my 45 yard line and onward i'd automatically call for a QB sneak. In the CFL the backup QB for just about every team is essentially there for that role alone. So if i'm a coach I bring in my backup tell him to dive ahead and I bet 90% of the time we'd convert.

Of course, that'd be looked upon as a bit unsporting but screw it, i'm here to win not lose.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

Personally, on a 4th & 1 (or less) on my 45 yard line and onward i'd automatically call for a QB sneak. In the CFL the backup QB for just about every team is essentially there for that role alone. So if i'm a coach I bring in my backup tell him to dive ahead and I bet 90% of the time we'd convert. Of course, that'd be looked upon as a bit unsporting but screw it, i'm here to win not lose.

I've watched Flacco try and fail the last 3 times in a row I believe, and the Ravens oline is actually decent. How's the oline on your hypothetical team? How's the D line and MLB of the team they're playing? The backup QB comes in so you pretty much know what's coming... it's just not that simple.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

I've watched Flacco try and fail the last 3 times in a row I believe, and the Ravens oline is actually decent. How's the oline on your hypothetical team? How's the D line and MLB of the team they're playing? The backup QB comes in so you pretty much know what's coming... it's just not that simple.

Well yeah, i'm simplifying but you can definitely teach the O-line to specifically block for short yardage situations like that or you can do something crazy like fake the sneak and have the QB throw for a short pass. There are also a variety of other ways to pick up the 1st down too. Once a coach/team has a reputation for taking those risks you can definitely draw the opposing team offsides with a hard count as well.

I know I exaggerated there but I think sometimes coaches are a bit too conservative and don't take enough chances. Look, i'm not asking for a Barry Switzer situation where he went for it on a 4th and short situation not once but TWICE on the same possession/down.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

Well yeah, i'm simplifying but you can definitely teach the O-line to specifically block for short yardage situations like that or you can do something crazy like fake the sneak and have the QB throw for a short pass. There are also a variety of other ways to pick up the 1st down too. Once a coach/team has a reputation for taking those risks you can definitely draw the opposing team offsides with a hard count as well. I know I exaggerated there but I think sometimes coaches are a bit too conservative and don't take enough chances. Look, i'm not asking for a Barry Switzer situation where he went for it on a 4th and short situation not once but TWICE on the same possession/down.

Deviating from just a QB sneak decreases the odds of completing it, especially when we're talking about passing the ball.

I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate bc I feel like the general thought is "just go for it, the stats say you're more likely to get it" but when you really break it all down and look at every scenario it's very far from being that simple. AND nobody is considering the consequences of not making it. You may say "if I'm at my 45..." which assumes the other team won't be in scoring position already. But even if we use that number, with today's kickers the other team is one first down away from scoring position. Meanwhile a good punt could pin them within the 5 or 10 yard line, limiting their play calling, possibly forcing a safety, most likely forcing them to punt giving you a chance to get the ball back in a better position to score than you had at 4th an 1 at your 45.

[gopher_guy]

Quote: Originally Posted by wwharton

Deviating from just a QB sneak decreases the odds of completing it, especially when we're talking about passing the ball. I'm playing a lot of devil's advocate bc I feel like the general thought is "just go for it, the stats say you're more likely to get it" but when you really break it all down and look at every scenario it's very far from being that simple. AND nobody is considering the consequences of not making it. You may say "if I'm at my 45..." which assumes the other team won't be in scoring position already. But even if we use that number, with today's kickers the other team is one first down away from scoring position. Meanwhile a good punt could pin them within the 5 or 10 yard line, limiting their play calling, possibly forcing a safety, most likely forcing them to punt giving you a chance to get the ball back in a better position to score than you had at 4th an 1 at your 45.

For me, it's just not about the offense's chance to convert, it's also about the opposing team's chance of turning it into points.

I mean, if you're at the 50 yard line, and you go for it and fail, they get the ball at the 50. Now, if you punt from your own 50, best case scenario, you pin them inside the 10 or the 5. What are the odds of doing that? 50%? The other half the time you either punt it in the endzone, or they fair catch/return it to the 15-25 yard line?

That's like a 30 yard difference, I'm guessing there's not a huge difference in the there's not a huge change in the chances of scoring from the 50 vs. the 20. That high school coach who never punts had the numbers, don't remember them.

In that scenario, where I'm at the 50, and losing the game, I think I'd rather take the risk and keep the ball if I convert.

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by gopher_guy

For me, it's just not about the offense's chance to convert, it's also about the opposing team's chance of turning it into points. I mean, if you're at the 50 yard line, and you go for it and fail, they get the ball at the 50. Now, if you punt from your own 50, best case scenario, you pin them inside the 10 or the 5. What are the odds of doing that? 50%? The other half the time you either punt it in the endzone, or they fair catch/return it to the 15-25 yard line? That's like a 30 yard difference, I'm guessing there's not a huge difference in the there's not a huge change in the chances of scoring from the 50 vs. the 20. That high school coach who never punts had the numbers, don't remember them. In that scenario, where I'm at the 50, and losing the game, I think I'd rather take the risk and keep the ball if I convert.

I'd guess there is a huge difference in scoring from the 50 and the 20. From the 50 you are two first downs away from a 47 yard FG attempt... one first down and 5 yards away from an attempt 100% of NFL FG kickers can make. And I don't have numbers but I'd say most punts from around the 50 result in fair catches inside the 20. Closer ones may have more touchbacks, and further ones may have more returns.

I also think the logic should be different for high schools where the differences between the lines should be obvious going in (and if your line dominates you should go for more 4th and 1's). You also don't have many good kickers in HS so the field is "longer" in that respect... and finally, the passing talent is much lower across the board in HS making it harder to turn a 1st down on the 50 into a scoring opportunity than it is in the NFL.