2023 NHL Playoff Preview and Predictions: Stanley Cup Finals
By Vincent Barlow 2h Ago
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Finally we have our final edition of our Preview and Prediction series here at The Athletic. From 16 teams down to 2, the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs are the last ones remaining after three rounds of Playoff hockey. It's a Stanley Cup Final that comes with an absurd amount of excitement for everyone involved. We have Toronto who has a chance to break their famous curse of 1967, the last time they won the Stanley Cup 56 seasons ago. We have the Avalanche who overcame their demons of last year by beating the Oilers who eliminated them in round one in 2022. And then of course we have Nathan MacKinnon who could break the NHL record for most goals in one Playoff year. He sits with 16 goals while Reggie Leach holds the record at 19 goals. Just 3 goals is a very attainable task for the likes of the Nate Dogg after he had 70 in the regular season. Those stories only scratch the surface of what interests fans all around the NHL in what could be one of the best Cup Finals in recent memory
Before we get into the full-lineup breakdown of these teams, let's take a look at how I did with my predictions last round.
Colorado vs Edmonton
My Prediction - COL in 5 Games
The Actual Result - COL in 7 Games
Toronto vs New York
My Prediction - TOR in 7 Games
The Actual Result - TOR in 6 Games
Not bad. Not bad at all. I failed to correctly guess the amount of games for both series but I was able to choose both the series winners. I'll put that down as a "W" in my book. Now with that out of the way, we can get into the nitty gritty.
Because it's the Stanley Cup Finals we want to really get into why these teams made it this far and how they match up against each other in this series. The best way to do that, in my opinion, is to break it down line-by-line. Let's jump right into it with each teams first line's
1st Line Matchup
Alex Newhook - Nathan MacKinnon - Mikko Rantanen
2 Goals 8 Assists - 16 Goals 9 Assists - 11 Goals 19 Assists
vs
William Nylander - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
8 Goals 11 Assists - 12 Goals 10 Assists - 8 Goals 15 Assists
With our first matchup we have easily two of the best first lines in the NHL. Both of these lines have had a massive influence on taking these teams to the Finals. On the Colorado side we obviously have the best duo in the league with Mack and Rantanen. Both have been incredible these playoffs and will be in contention for the Conn Smythe, regardless if they win or not. Then we have Alex Newhook. At just 22 years old the 5'10 forward had no sophomore slump as he upped his point total to 60 this year after 35 in his rookie year. However he hasn't been able to replicate his season production in these playoffs with a still respectable 10 points through 17 games. He's very clearly a top six player but is also clearly the worst player out of the six featured between these two teams
The Leafs have their whole first line firing at over a point per game, including William Nylander who was under point per game in the regular season (73 points in 82 games). Matthews leads the team in scoring with 12 while Marner and Nylander have been feeding him assists. Both Auston and Mitch are a +11 while Nylander is a +14. The Colorado trio meanwhile is far below that with a +9 (Rantanen), +6 (MacKinnon) and +4 (Newhook). So who can I give the advantage too? I don't think I can. The Mack-Rantanen duo is better than the Matthews-Marner pair but Nylander has been better than Newhook. The only fair choice is to make it a draw
Advantage - Draw
2nd Line Matchup
Gabriel Landeskog - Nazem Kadri - Andre Burakovsky
5 Goals 5 Assists - 3 Goals 13 Assists - 3 Goals 8 Assists
vs
Nick Robertson - John Tavares - Pontus Holmberg
0 Goals 6 Assists - 5 Goals 7 Assists - 0 Goals 11 Assists
The Avalanche's top six is hard to beat. Only a few teams could even arguably have better and the Leafs are not one of those teams. John Tavares isn't the player he was when he first came to Toronto 5 seasons ago and while he is the best forward here for the Maple Leafs, he's not better than the opposing second line centerman in Nazem Kadri, a former Maple Leaf. Kadri was actually traded just a year after Tavares came to town so this is somewhat of a revenge series for the 96 point scorer.
Going back to to the Maple Leafs, the wingers that flank the veteran Tavares are two rookies. When you compare that to Kadri's wingers in Landeskog and Burakovsky and you see why this matchup is a no brainer as to who's better. Holmberg has had a great postseason for a rookie with 11 points, however all of them has been assists. Robertson meanwhile has just 6 points (also all assists). Colorado gets the clear advantage.
Advantage - Colorado
3rd Line Matchup
Nicolas Aube-Kubel - Curtis Lazar - Valeri Nichushkin
1 Goal 6 Assists - 1 Goal 2 Assists - 8 Goals 8 Assists
vs
Kyle Clifford - Alexander Kerfoot - Wayne Simmonds
5 Goals 5 Assists - 3 Goals 7 Assists - 4 Goals 4 Assists
Toronto's 3rd line has been a big reason for their success these playoffs. The veteran grinders on the wings in Clifford and Simmonds have had stellar playoffs, providing tons of physicality and offense at key points on this run. Clifford in fact almost has more points than he had in the regular season, which was 14, in 47 less games.
Kerfoot has been great down the middle and been a good defensive-minded player on this line. The Avalanche's line of Kubel, Lazar and Nichushkin has been great in their own right but, outside of Valeri (who has been the best third line player in these playoffs), hasn't been as good as the Leafs trio. Nichushkin is actually the third highest scoring forward for the Avs behind just Mack and Mikko and he's done it with just 15:19 of average ice time. It's very impressive but doesn't quite outweigh how more balanced the Toronto line is.
Advantage - Toronto
4th Line Matchup
Artturi Lehkonen - J.T. Compher - Logan O'Connor
2 Goals 5 Assists - 4 Goals 0 Assists - 1 Goal 1 Assist
vs
Joey Anderson - David Kampf - Alexander Nylander
0 Goals 2 Assists - 0 Goals 3 Assists - 4 Goals 0 Assists
Realistically, the 4th lines aren't going to decide who wins this series. So despite Colorado having the advantage here it doesn't hold as much weight as an advantage on the 2nd line does. With saying that though the Avs do have the upper hand here with Lehkonen and Compher playing great hockey in limited minutes. Nylander's four goals have been pretty impressive but it's still a win for COL here
Advantage - Colorado
1st D Pairing Matchup
Devon Toews - Cale Makar
3 Goals 2 Assists +2 - 1 Goal 17 Assists +3
vs
Morgan Rielly - Timothy Liljegren
5 Goals 10 Assists +12 - 4 Goals 6 Assists +12
On Paper and based of regular season play, Colorado's first pairing wipes the floor with Toronto's and that's not even really a diss against Rielly and Liljegren. The duo of Toews and Makar was the best over the 82 game season and is the best in the NHL. However the Playoffs is a different animal and it's not even that out of range to say that the Leafs duo has been better thus far. Both have a +12 rating and have more combined points than their counterparts. While Makar and Toews definitely felt the effects of matching up with McDavid and Draisaitl last series, the Leafs faced offensive weapons along the way as well. So instead of this being a Avalanche advantage I'm going to have to go with a draw based off of their play through these 17-18 playoff games
Advantage - Draw
2nd D Pairing Matchup
Samuel Girard - Bowen Byram
0 Goals 7 Assists +4 - 2 Goals 2 Assists +4
vs
Mario Ferraro - Justin Holl
0 Goals 2 Assists +5 - 0 Goals 1 Assist +2
This one is probably the biggest mismatch out of every matchup, despite how it looks on paper. We'll start with Samuel Girard. Plain and simple, he's HEAVILY underperformed these playoffs. He had a by far career high of 72 points this season and yet has just 7 assists through three rounds of hockey. He just hasn't been nearly as good these playoffs. Will he be able to get back to his form during these Finals? The Avs will be hoping so. Even with that all said, the pair of Byram and Girard is just clearly better than Ferraro and Holl. The Leafs duo is much more of a defensive minded pairing but are just inferior to their counterparts. Girard's underperformance makes this comparison closer than it really is but Colorado have the upper hand
Advantage - Colorado
3rd D Pairing Matchup
Kale Clague - Erik Johnson
2 Goals 5 Assists +1 - 1 Goal 1 Assist +1
vs
Rasmus Sandin - Topi Niemela
2 Goals 9 Assists +1 - 1 Goal 3 Assists -2
Rasmus Sandin leads the group of third pairing defenseman with 11 points as he's been used all year as an offensive D-Man with limited minutes on the third pair. His defense is what hurts him. It would be best if he was paired with a much more defensive guy than Topi Niemela but to be fair to the 21 year old Fin, he has been able to hold it down when Sandin finds himself out of position.
Clague and Johnson meanwhile aren't much different. Clague is an offensive guy who likes to get his points joining in on the rush. Johnson meanwhile isn't known for his defense but has been able to keep things steady when Kale likes to jump into the play. So it's just a matter of who does it better? Sandin was much more productive than Clague in the regular season and has more points these Playoffs. Niemela and Johnson practically cancel each other out. I'll have to go Toronto here.
Advantage - Toronto
Goalie Matchup
Pavel Francouz
12 Wins .913 SV% 2.96 GAA 3 SO
vs
Petr Mrazek
12 Wins .935 SV% 2.16 GAA 2 SO
Both of these goalies will be Vezina Trophy finalists after the regular seasons they had. Francouz had the better season but Mrazek has had an incredible Playoffs thus far. It's what makes it so hard to give an advantage to either of these goalies. Mrazek's track record is shaky prior to this season but has been the better goalie in the Playoffs. Is that enough to ignore Francouz's stellar play over the last 3 seasons compared to Petr's? I don't think so. But I also don't think it outweigh enough to give the advantage to Pavel outright. You know what that means.
Advantage - Draw
Team Comparison
| Colorado Avalanche (1) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (2) |
 | VS |  |
Colorado Avalanche
(12-5) | | Toronto Maple Leafs
(12-6) |
| Team Stats Comparison | | 3.88 (1st) | Goals Per Game | 3.39 (2nd) | 3.12 (10th) | Goals Against Per Game | 2.44 (2nd) | 40% (1st) | Power Play % | 11.1% (15th) | 71.2% (14th) | Penalty Kill % | 88.7% (2nd) |
|
| Injury Report | No Injuries
| | Jake Muzzin
Concussion (1-2 Weeks) |
|
Looking at the team stats you can see how hard the Edmonton series hit the Avalanche's averages and percentages. The Oilers powerplay and scoring was a problem for Colorado but it's something that they won't have as many issues with against Toronto considering their PP has just 9 goals on 81 opportunities. It's how well their scoring will handle the Leafs defense is what lies ahead for them. It's not been something they've been known for in the past but this year Toronto's defense has really been spectacular. Will it be enough to stop the Avs firepower though? Only time will tell
The Prediction
After reviewing all the lines, all the stats, all the storylines I have looked into the Crystal Ball one last time these playoffs and it's shown me that thee..... Colorado Avalanche will win the Stanley Cup in 6 Games! Yes I've chosen to go with the President Trophy winners to actually win the Cup. It would be the first time since the Blackhawks in 2013 for this to happen but I think MacKinnon and company can break the curse. They have the drive from losing last year and with the amount of talent on their team they seem destined to win it all. We'll see how well this ages when the puck drops in Colorado for Game 1.
10-12-2022, 01:27 PM
