TSN Pre-Playoff Primer: Second Edition
Wildcard battles coming down to the wire, four more teams out of contention
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By
Taylor Gaudet
April 8th, 2023It's been just seven days since our last update but four more teams have already been mathematically eliminated. Let's take a look at what's went down in the past week.
Western Conference
Six teams in the Western Conference have secured their spot in the Playoffs as Arizona and Vegas join the prior four. The top three seeds in the Pacific will almost certainly remain as it is unless Vegas goes winless in their last 3 games and Winnipeg wins their remaining 4 contests.
The Jets leapfrogged the Sharks after going 3-0-1 last week to sit as the first Wildcard spot. The trio of teams (Calgary, Los Angeles, Anaheim) last week that were tied with 78 points failed to gain any ground on their competitors. LA failed to win a game, Calgary managed to win one and Anaheim had a win and an OT loss. Dallas even passed the Kings after winning 3 games and are still in the mix.
It's up to Winnipeg and San Jose now to hold on to the first and second Wildcard's. The Jets are almost a lock to qualify and the Sharks are on the brink. It's in their hands, will they play with their food or bear down and secure playoff spots.
Eastern Conference
The East is so tight of a race that really anything could happen. The Bruins are sliding at the worst possible time as they dropped four games in a row since April 1st and went from second seed to second wildcard.
The Devils and Blue Jackets are almost certainly going to miss but the Senators and Canadiens still have a fighting chance. With 89 and 88 points each, respectively, the two Canadian teams will try and squeak into a wildcard spot with a handful or less games to go.
My prediction here out East is that the Bruins will continue to drop games and will fall out of the wildcard all together. It will make way for either the Sens or Habs to snag the spot. Although I really want to ride with the Senators I'm going to go with the Habs continuing on their hot pace and securing their spot in the Playoffs.
Newly Eliminated
St. Louis Blues
Scoring troubles were the downfall of a Blues team that would have been a playoff team if they could have gotten more offensive contributions from their forwards. They currently have the fourth worst goals per game in the NHL with 2.55.
St. Louis has just one 20 goal scorer in Jordan Kyrou. That's not going to cut it. Kyrou has 21 more points then the second highest scorer on the team, Robert Thomas. Also part of the problem was captain Ryan O'Reilly really taking a step back offensively this season with just 39 points so far through 75 games. His contract expires after this year. Will the Blues be willing to pay someone who made over $8 Million who's offensive skills are waning? He's still one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL but they're going to be hoping he's willing to take a pay cut.
There are some positives to take out of their season however. Three of their five rookies had 25 or more points so far this season. 3rd overall pick Matthew Savoie put up 33 points, 15 of which were goals. Former Capitals pick Brett Leason provided some offense on the right wing with 25 points but having a -16 along with that. Lastly, Jake Neighbours was a physical presence in the Top 9 with 134 hits while scoring 10 goals and 28 points. He's essentially the next coming of David Backes, something the Blues management are very excited about.
Outside of the forwards, the team was pretty good. Torey Krug led the defense with 61 points as of publishing this and Justin Faulk has 31 points with a +23. The other four defenseman were average at best with Bortuzzo being the worst with just 6 points and a -29. Jordan Binnington upped his save percentage to .912 from the .903 he had last season. His 6 shutouts are also a career best for the 29 year old. Finding a better backup goalie should be a high priority after the season Scott Wedgewood is having, going 6-10-2 with a .901 SV%. Joel Hofer in the AHL looks like he could be an in-house replacement. He went 30-23-4 with a .920 SV% for Springfield.
Seattle Kraken
So... my prediction of the Kraken securing a playoff spot didn't quite age to well. Regardless, it was unlikely Seattle was going to make the playoffs this season with the team they had this season. After seeing how this season played out it does look like they do have a starting base for what could be a good team.
The Top 6 forwards are pretty solid. Jared McCann, Matty Berniers and Jordan Eberle were the regulars on the first line and all of them will finish with more then 50 points this season. Beniers avoided a sophomore slump and upped his point total from 36 to 63 so far this season. He will be the future captain of the Kraken, no doubt about it. With Gourde, Schwartz and Iafallo filling out some of the Top 9, this team has the offensive capabilities to be good. It's the defensive side of the game that they struggle with.
The Kraken have just 3 players who aren't a minus and have played more than 50 games (Soucy, Wennberg, Geekie). The goaltending of Philipp Grubauer didn't exactly help with that, going 19-31-7 with a .906%, but backup goalie Chris Driedger was good in the games he played in. He went 15-5-0 with a .918 SV% in 24 games. He's been the starter for the past couple weeks and will likely go into next season as the #1.
The defense really needs some work. There is no other way to put it. The top 4 of Vince Dunn, Troy Stecher, Jamie Oleksiak and Brett Kulak were all a -15 or worse. Adding a top four two-way defenseman would do wonders for this squad. We'll see what they decide to do during the offseason.
Carolina Hurricanes
For the second straight season the Hurricanes will fail to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Change is needed in Carolina. With the talent this team has they should easily be qualifying for a playoff spot. The team has allowed just 2.64 goals against per game this year (3rd best in the league) so defense is not the issue. The blame clearly falls on the lack of production from what should be their "star" forwards in Aho and Svechnikov.
Being payed a combined 16 million dollars, you have to expect more from the Finnish and Russian duo. Aho has seemingly regressed at the age of 25 after 3 straight seasons of, what will likely be, less then 60 points. In 2021 he was a point a game player but hasn't been able to replicate that in the two years since. Then we look at Svechnikov who has struggled to take that jump to the status of a star player. He has 68 points through 78 games but at the age of 23 and finishing his 5th season in the NHL this year, the Hurricanes had to have expected he would take a bigger jump thus far in his career.
Maybe it's not fair to only blame these two guys. It's looking like just 6 forwards will finish with more than 30 points this season. The severe lack of point production from the forwards is the overall problem in Carolina. What at least softens the blow from the forwards struggles is the trio of defenseman on the backend who have a better offensive output than most of the forwards. DeAngelo, Pesce and Slavin have 77, 52 and 34 points each, respectively. Without them the Hurricanes would easily be the worst offensive team in the NHL.
The plan in the offseason is obviously to improve the team up front but how their going to go about that is unclear. Will they have the guts to move one or both of their top-end forwards? Or will they pray those two regain their form from years past and try and improve the team depth? GM Don Waddell has his work cut out for him this summer and depending on how it goes, it could eventually cost him his job if he's not careful.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings really revamped their roster this offseason but it didn't quite pay off in year one as they fail to make the playoffs once again. The pressure is now on for GM Steve Yzerman to bring back some crucial free agents this summer.
It starts with Captain Dylan Larkin who has spent 520 games in a Red Wings uniform and as an RFA it's unlikely to change. But how much money will the 26 year old be looking for in this contract? He's made $6.1 Million the last five years and is reportedly looking for an AAV anywhere from 7 to 9 Million. He's spent part of this season injured but still has just 46 points through 69 games. That's not someone you want to give 9 bags too. He was however a point a game player back in 2022 with 85 points in 82 games. Which Larkin will Detroit be getting if they decide to re-sign him?
Larkin is just one of the fish Yzerman has to fry. Tyler Bertuzzi, Andrew Copp and Tyson Jost are all due fresh contracts. Will all four of these Wings be back next season? With just $13 million in cap space this summer it's impossible to bring back all of them without making some moves to offload some players on the roster.
They may have just shot themselves in the foot after the massive contracts they gave last offseason