2023 ALDS: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

[countryboy]

Quote: Originally Posted by ImTellinTim

Not trying to be a dick, but the word you're looking for is "parity". The spelling "parody" is what Weird Al does with songs.

Oops… thanks


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[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

I understand that but because they don’t doesn’t equate to needing to change the system or give them a greater advantage. The system isn’t going to revert back to its former self nor will the owners ever agree to a format where the higher seed in the LDS plays every game at home. Myself I enjoy the parody that the baseball playoffs provide vs that of say the NBA. And I hope the powers at be, don’t find or search for ways to disrupt that parody

I know we discussed this at length last playoffs, and I respect your opinion. I guess I just take a Goldilocks approach to this. If a heavy favourite wins 100% of the time, you're doing something wrong. If a heavy favourite wins 50% of the time, you're also doing something wrong. This century (2000 season onwards), there have been 27 matchups in which one team had a significantly better regular season than their opponent (10+ games in the standings, ie a team with 100+ wins vs a team with 90 or fewer). The heavy favourites are only 12-15! That porridge is a little too hot for me. The regular season should have some bearing on the postseason winner. What baseball is doing right now is encouraging teams (and fans) not to value regular season success at all.

[countryboy]

Quote: Originally Posted by DrJones

I know we discussed this at length last playoffs, and I respect your opinion. I guess I just take a Goldilocks approach to this. If a heavy favourite wins 100% of the time, you're doing something wrong. If a heavy favourite wins 50% of the time, you're also doing something wrong. This century (2000 season onwards), there have been 27 matchups in which one team had a significantly better regular season than their opponent (10+ games in the standings, ie a team with 100+ wins vs a team with 90 or fewer). The heavy favourites are only 12-15! That porridge is a little too hot for me. The regular season should have some bearing on the postseason winner. What baseball is doing right now is encouraging teams (and fans) not to value regular season success at all.

I’d be curious to know the head to head records in those 27 matchups. As I referenced earlier none of the matchups in this year’s LDS promote a heavy favorite.

The regular season has a bearing on the postseason winner because only 12 of 30 teams qualify for the opportunity. And 4 of those 12 teams get to advance a round closer to playing for the pennant/World Series based on how they performed in the regular season.

I don’t accept the premise that a team with 10 or more wins than a team they are playing in the postseason equates to being a heavy favorite. I understand the oddsmakers and betting aspects that drive that narrative.

I would consider a team a heavy favorite if they dominated the regular season series. Outside of that I think total number of wins being a precursor as to who deserves to play for the championship and the system is flawed and needs fixed (giving that team more advantages)if they don’t, starts diluting the atmosphere, excitement, interest (until say LCS), and uniqueness of the postseason.


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[countryboy]

Also it’s sad that the Rangers are 5-0 in the postseason thus far with 4 of those 5 wins coming on the road and the discussion is on how to better prevent this from happening in the future instead of appreciating their accomplishment.


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[ImTellinTim]

The Rangers also tied for the division lead and didn’t get to have a Game 163 to try and win the division like they still should do. I was at the Tigers-Twins Game 163 which was voted one of the top 20 MLB games of all time, and I can’t believe they went away from breaking division winner ties that way.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

Also it’s sad that the Rangers are 5-0 in the postseason thus far with 4 of those 5 wins coming on the road and the discussion is on how to better prevent this from happening in the future instead of appreciating their accomplishment.

I'd like to prevent this from happening at a better than 50% clip every season, yes.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by ImTellinTim

The Rangers also tied for the division lead and didn’t get to have a Game 163 to try and win the division like they still should do. I was at the Tigers-Twins Game 163 which was voted one of the top 20 MLB games of all time, and I can’t believe they went away from breaking division winner ties that way.

I'm fine with H2H determining situations in which both teams are guaranteed of a playoff berth (like Astros/Rangers this season). When it's a loser-leaves-town match (like Twins/Tigers in 2009), I'm totally in favour of keeping the one-game playoff.

MLB and the networks are doubtless happier with a locked postseason schedule - excitement and fairness be damned.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

I’d be curious to know the head to head records in those 27 matchups. As I referenced earlier none of the matchups in this year’s LDS promote a heavy favorite.

Ha, even I don't have enough free time on my hands to dig up 25 years' worth of head-to-head results. As for the last two postseasons, the Dodgers (111 wins) beat the Padres (89 wins) in their H2H 14-5. The Braves (101 wins) were 11-8 against the Phillies (88 wins).

As far as this season goes, the Dodgers should in theory be heavy favourites, should they not? They had 100 wins to Arizona's 84, a run differential of +232 to -15, have star power with championship with Freeman and Betts whereas the D'backs haven't won a playoff series since 2007.

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

The regular season has a bearing on the postseason winner because only 12 of 30 teams qualify for the opportunity. And 4 of those 12 teams get to advance a round closer to playing for the pennant/World Series based on how they performed in the regular season.

162 games should eliminate more than 18 teams IMO. And unlike other, more physical sports, I just don't think byes are particularly advantageous in baseball, which relies more heavily on routine.

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

I don’t accept the premise that a team with 10 or more wins than a team they are playing in the postseason equates to being a heavy favorite. I understand the oddsmakers and betting aspects that drive that narrative. I would consider a team a heavy favorite if they dominated the regular season series.

Interesting. I can't say that I've ever seen much of a correlation with playoff results and H2H record (ie, "that team's got our number") in any sport, really. That prompts me to ask if you think any baseball postseason series you've ever seen involved a heavy favourite/underdog situation.

Quote: Originally Posted by countryboy

Outside of that I think total number of wins being a precursor as to who deserves to play for the championship and the system is flawed and needs fixed (giving that team more advantages)if they don’t, starts diluting the atmosphere, excitement, interest (until say LCS), and uniqueness of the postseason.

Gotta agree to disagree here. The possibility of an upset is an exciting. The inevitability of an upset isn't.

Anyway, I'm glad we're having this discussion in a dead thread, haha.