Donald Cerrone’s current run at LW

[Good Grappler]

I’m a big fan of the way Cerrone’s putting it all together now at LW. He’s always been an extremely high-skilled fighter, but he seems to have an added level of focus and determination now. He’s actually making a convincing run for the title, and I’m compelled to believe he can win the belt.

When he’s on his A game, and in that focused minset, it’s really hard to imagine any LW beating him. And yes, that includes Khabib Nurmagomedov. I know that sounds crazy, but bear with me.

I’m a huge Khabib fan. I’ve been obsessed with his grappling and overall fight style since he came to the UFC. I actually believe Khabib’s striking is among the best at LW; his blitzes, speed, distance management, footwork... he really alphas people from striking range with his explosiveness and presense. I love his grappling, it’s just such a gorgeous mixture of intensity with technique. The way he stands up from inside the guard to completely shut down and BJJ play, then just punches and passes. If his opponent retains guard he just stands up and starts over... it’s really impossible to use BJJ on Khabib. It’s amazing. I’ve been picking Khabib to beat McGregor, or Ferguson, or any LW since early in his UFC run. I truly believe Ferguson’s bottom game is overrated and would be practically useless against Khabib (look at Ferguson vs Danny Castillo, or Kevin Lee... he’s just unorthodox and has great stamina, Khabib would shut that **** down).

BEING SAID. I now, for the first time since Khabib’s entrance to the UFC, feel he may have a serious threat in Cerrone. I never thought I’d say this, but Cerrone’s current run has me convinced that Cerrone could beat Khabib. I’d actually slightly favor Cerrone if he were to fight Khabib next, like 60/40. He has the right mix of tools, with the added X factor just based on his newfound determination to actually WIN the belt (never seemed to care before), to give Khabib fits.

His striking is obviously high level, look what he did to Barboza, Iaquinta, Rick Story, Eddie Alvarez, etc. But his grappling is among the best in the UFC, period. I think his grappling is criminally underrated. He’s had several fights where as soon as it hits the mat, he completely dominated. It’s incredible, really. Myles Jury, a BJJ black belt with his own BJJ system (Jury Jiu Jitsu), takes Cerrone down early in the first round. Cerrone just immediately attacks with a gogoplate then takes his back, locks on a body triangle, and spends the rest of the round on Jury’s back threatening with a choke. Mike Perry slams Cerrone to the mat, and immediately he’s defending sweeps, traingle, and other **** before getting his arm ripped off. I know Mike Perry’s not a great grappler, but the way Cerrone exposed it was amazing. Even Cerrone’s offensive wrestling is extremely underrated... took down Rick Story, RDA, Darren Till, etc.

Even back when he was inconsistent, he had some dominant wins over high level fighters. Completely smoked Eddie Alvarez, while Alvarez was in his competitive prime, before he went on a tear and won the belt. Ran right through Edson Barboza. Made B tier fighters like Jim Miller look completely out of their element.

Assuming Cerrone fights Khabib on his A++ game, with the same mentality he’s had in his last few fights, Khabib’s in trouble. I actually think Khabib’s best bet would be in the striking, particularly with the head punches. He has the power and speed to clock Cerrone in the head and hurt him, and I can totally see Khabib catching Cowboy. But that’s still a dangerous game to play, Cowboy is definitely the superior striker overall. He’s much more dynamic, and as the fight goes on, he’d slowly take over.

Then the grappling is a very dangerous game against Cerrone. Again, I know it sounds crazy to imagine Khabib having any issues on the ground. But actually think about it... how does Khabib beat Cowboy on the ground? I know you want to just visualize Khabib in top position trapping a wrist and punching away, but be specific. From what position does Khabib control Cerrone to land punches? When you really start thinking about it, you realize that Cowboy’s a damn monster on the ground. I can totally see Khabib taking Cerrone down, then immediately being forced to scramble to avoid some sort of triangle or armbar, and during that scramble Cowboy takes his back or just escapes entirely. After a handful of scrambles like that it will be hard to score those exchanges in favor of Khabib, it may even discourage him from engaging on the mat too much.

Now, I can totally see Khabib using a more folkstyle-esque approach as he’s known to do in order to avoid the BJJ. I can totally see Khabib getting that lock from the back side position, riding Cerrone and frustrating him, shutting down his ability to roll or muster any sort of guard. Then if Cerrone does get something going, Khabib just stands to his feet and throws haymaker while Cerrone frantically scrambles to his feet. Then Khabib just re-engages with that body lock, drags Cerrone back down to his hands and knees, and just keeps punching him. As good as Cerrone’s grappling is, it won’t really help him from positions like these and he doesn’t like getting punched in the head. If there’s even the slightest desire to quit in his heart, Khabib will give him plenty of opportunities to do so in these types of positions.

But overall, when I envision this fight, I see Cerrone having the advantage for some reason. I picture different scenarios, both striking and grappling, and I see Cerrone giving Khabib fits. Yes, I also see Khabib dominating in certain positions or situations. I can see Khabib hurting Cerrone with the boxing, or trapping a wrist and breaking him with punches from his back. But I also see Cerrone ****ing Khabib up from every position, wipping him to the body with front kicks, sniping him up with straight punches. I can see Cerrone getting him dazed and confused, tired, concerned. I can see Khabib getting staggered by a clean 3-piece in the fourth round, then shooting a desperation takedown, and Cerrone just immediately attacks with a darce, transitions to mount, attacks with an armbar, takes the back, and chokes him out. I mean I can totally see that ****, Cerrone has a way of totally dominating people once they start to fall apart or get mesmerized by his technique.

The fight will be fascinating and I can’t wait to see it. Obviously Cerrone has a tough fight ahead of him next weekend, and I by no means think he should be favored for that. But if he does beat Ferguson - and that’s a big if - then I will be fully convinced that he has the tools to beat Khabib. Only time will tell. Whether Ferguson or Cerrone wins, either one will be a fascinating matchup for Khabib. I personally feel Cerrone is the more interesting matchup for Khabib, but only time will tell.

[Pappy Knuckles]

Donald Cerrone is without question a legend. He's dangerous everywhere, and his recent run shows that he's still a threat to anyone he faces. That being said, we've been here with Cerrone before. In those truly big moments in his career, he either came up short, or he looked like a shell of himself altogether. As impressive as his last few wins were, beating those guys isn't enough for me to favor him over Khabib, let alone beat him.

I get why you feel the way that you do, though. Khabib can be defeated like any other man, and Cerrone's game is better suited to accomplish that task than most. But Cerrone's history doesn't give me a lot of confidence in that happening.