2024 Franchise Fidelity to Reality Roster Project (Official Thread)
Welcome to the third ever release of my “Franchise Fidelity to Reality” roster set! Last year was a HUGE success w/ over 12K downloads and tons of positive feedback. I am excited to bring the project back once again this year with some new wrinkles to help take it to the next level.
Meet the Team
Spoiler
·ViatorLion10: Project creator, chief auditor, in-game editor
·Sports Gaming Rosters (aka Big_Gargamel): Base roster creator, player likeness and equipment coordinator
·JWDixon: MLB/MiLB data gathering, system development, in-game editor
·Tiboss300: Prospect data gathering, in-game editor
·EggplantKitty: In-game editor
·Matt Thompson: ProspectsLive collaborator
What’s New This Year
Spoiler
Tweaked WAR integration into potential calculations for better balance
Multiple reworked standard curves for better attribute calculations
Multiple new stats applied for attribute calculations (see YouTube stream or categories below for specifics)
Reworked all standard curves for MiLB prospects--better final outputs of ratings and archetypes
HP to 1B data for MiLB prospects for unique speed determinations of each player
Completely rebuilt MiLB pitching prospect attribute calculations based on computed arsenal grades, command grades, and additional factors
Behind the scenes QoL changes to decrease human error, speed up processing, and allow for better fine tuning and auditing
For years, I have been trying to achieve the best possible franchise experience. Full minors rosters added enjoyment to my experience, however, they often created huge problems for franchise longevity due to unbalanced potentials amongst prospects and MLB players. I then tried out other creators who attempted re-rate both overalls and potentials for MLB and MiLB players. I give these creators a ton of credit because I now realize how much effort goes into this process. That being said, I saw a vast room for improvement in a multitude of areas, so therefore, I set out to put my own little spin on things and create the most balanced and realistic roster available.
What sets this roster apart from all the others?
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One of the things I wanted to focus on the most was trying to best recreate in-game every player’s unique style and level of play. To achieve this, I needed to get testing in-game to see what attribute values could replicate what statistics.
So that’s exactly what I did. I spent hours testing how variable values of attributes would lead to different outputs for statistics. I was then able to create standard curves from this testing so I could extrapolate how a player’s real-life statistics could be quantified into an in-game rating. From what I can tell, this is a feature unique to only my roster set. Others certainly use real life statistics to generate ratings, but none that I have found try to replicate those real-life numbers in-game.
After these ratings have been generated, I also go through an auditing process. No system is perfect, and I know that. Sometimes players can fall through the cracks and be heavily over/underrated. This auditing process allows me to catch these players and to adjust them accordingly. These changes are only made to truly replicate a player’s actual value in real-life and I try to keep them at a minimum when possible.
The second aspect that I wanted to heavily focus on in the depth of prospects. I was never a fan of rosters that prioritized AAA/AA filler players over top prospects who are in the low minors. Not to mention, sometimes lesser-known prospects can often be the most intriguing, and therefore, the most fun to play with in-game. That is why I decided to include every team’s top 30 prospects. This allows for significant depth in terms of franchise management, as well as it helps to really set apart strong farm systems from weak farm systems. Again, this is the only roster to my knowledge that goes in-depth from #1 all the way to #30.
The last thing that is unique to this roster set is a tiered potential system. This is by no means something that only I do, however, my tiered system is broken up into various roles that players can fill. Players are assigned certain roles based on their level of play and projected future level of play, and thus are assigned a pertinent value.
The end result should be a roster that has a high number of “average” players in the mid-70s with decreasing numbers of guys in the 80s and 90s along w/ guys in the low-70s and even upper-60s that will be on MLB rosters at times. This should lead to long-term stability of franchises and a strong bit of realism for hardcore sim players.
Full list of features
Spoiler
·Re-rates of all attributes, overalls, and potentials for every player on 40-man rosters and former MLB players on MiLB contracts (~1400 players)
oPowered by real-life statistics and advanced metrics (Statcast and Fielding bible)
·Inclusion of every team’s top 30 prospects with the most accurate archetypes, current overalls, and potentials (900 players)
oPowered by ProspectsLive.com (list from MLB Pipeline)
·Simple re-rates and potential re-works of roster filler players (~500 players)
·In-depth pitch reworks for MLB players to best replicate repertoires and pitch effectiveness
oPowered by Statcast and Fangraphs
·Tiered potential system to balance potentials across the league and allow for franchise longevity
Methodology
Statistics from the past three seasons are gathered for every single player to be edited. I believe baseball to be a long game, and that the longer you play, the more your true ability starts to show. Therefore, I do not weight the performance of any one season over the other. A player’s average performance over a three-year period as well as projections for the upcoming season will be used to generate his attributes.
As far as potentials go, I don’t aim to have a certain percentage of players fall in certain categories. I let a player’s performance and projections determine their value alone. To determine potentials, I build off of the value a player has already demonstrated on the field and then using a standard regression curve to determine how much more they can develop based on their current age. A breakdown of roles and expected overalls can be found below:
Pos Players
SP
RP
Potential
Elite
Elite
95-99
Superstar
Ace
Elite Closer
90-95
All-Star
Top Rotation
Top Closer
86-90
Great
SP 2/3
High Leverage
82-85
Above Avg.
Mid Rotation
Mid-Late RP
78-81
Avg.
SP 4/5
Regular RP
75-77
Role
5th SP
Low Leverage
72-74
AAAA
69-71
AAA
64-68
Position player attribute values
·Contact: Batting average
oLeague average: 60
·Power: ISO
oLeague average: 65
·Vision: K%
oLeague average: 42
·Discipline: BB%
oLeague average: 60
·Clutch: BA w/ RISP
oLeague average: 60
·Durability: Base value (really doesn't control anything in-game)
·Speed: Sprint speed
oLeague average: 50
·Arm strength: Arm Strength via Statcast
·Arm accuracy:
oCatchers: Based on CS Above Avg./throw
oInfielders: Based on number of throwing errors and total throwing chances (w/ caps on accuracy of 1B and 2B)
oInfielders: Outs above average/Opportunities (remove fielding errors from outs above average calculation)
oOutfielders: OF reaction (component of "jump")
·Blocking: Blocks above avg./opportunity
oLeague average: 65
·Stealing and BR aggressiveness: wSB and SBA/H
oLeague average: 40
Pitching attribute values
·Stamina: IP/App
oLeague average for SP: 73
oLeague average for RP: ~20
·Per 9 attribute: Corresponding per 9 values
oLeague average H/9: 60
oHR/9: 55
oK/9: 65
oBB/9: 65
·Clutch: H/9 w/ RISP
oLeague average: 60
·Pitch control: Location+ from Fangraphs
oLeague average: 60
·Pitch movement: Stuff+ from Fangraphs
oLeague average: 60
Prospect editing
·Attributes are determined based on scouting grades for different skills
oFor hitters: This will include a specific grade for every skill
oFor pitchers: This will only include pitch and control/command grades, which are then combined to generate per 9 grades
oFor pitchers: Pitch control is determined by control/command grades, while movement is determined by the overall pitch grade
oFinal attributes are not meant to perfectly replicate grades. Instead, each player has a specific archetype that is created. Therefore, development in franchise will be critical. Players w/ 60 hit tools are not guaranteed to be 60-grade hitters in the MLB. You actually have to develop that tool still (which is a nice little unique feature)
·Current overalls are determined via a combination of MLB ETA, scouting overall (based on attribute grades and current minor league level), and performance (based on wRC+ or xFIP at certain minor league levels)
·Potentials are determined based on a combination “overall” grade and current age to generate a value used for a standard curve
· Below is a rough chart of what overall grades correspond to what overalls, however, this is free-flowing and players can move up or down based on different factors
Position Players
Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
“Overall” Grade
Potential
Elite
Elite
75
95-99
Superstar
Ace pitcher
Elite closer
70
90-95
All-Star
Top of rotation
Top closer
65
86-90
Great
SP 2/3
High leverage
60
82-85
Above Average
Mid rotation
Mid-late RP
55
78-81
Average
SP 4/5
Regular RP
50
75-77
Role (Below Average)
5th SP
Low leverage RP
45
72-74
AAAA player
40
69-71
AAA player
35
64-68
New Draft Pick Editing in Franchise
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In order to maintain roster integrity as franchise goes on, I’ve found it necessary to edit incoming draft picks to make sure that newly drafted players do not completely outshine pre-established prospects. Doing this is relatively simple:
-Decrease every draftees potential by 3-4 points
-Limit max overalls by ages (18 = 60, 19 = 62, 20 = 64, 21 = 66, 22 = 68, 23+ = 70)
-Knock down every draftees vision by 20 points
-Decrease SP stamina by 5 and RP stamina by 10
All of this should keep potentials and necessary attributes in line with the entire roster
Final Comments
I want to thank each and every last one of you who download these rosters and give them a try. This project is a lot of work, but the end result makes it worth it. I am so glad to have a full team working together this year as it only helps make the final product that much better.
If you like the rosters and would like to donate a little bit, I would be massively appreciative, though it is by no means required:
02-05-2024, 10:43 AM
