Redleg Nation - A Cincinnati Reds Experience (OOTP 22)

[jasontoddwhitt]

2021 Season Preview - Cincinnati Reds

2020 Season Review

2020 Record: 31-29, Tied for 2nd place in NL Central

Team MVP: Trevor Bauer

Despite getting off to a slow start, the Cincinnati Reds were able to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. The pitching was outstanding with a rotation led by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and eventual NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims emerged as legitimate late-inning arms out of the pen. Unfortunately, though, the team really struggled on offense. After adding Nicholas Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Shogo Akiyama, many expected the Reds' offense to be good. Most of the Reds’ starting lineup got off to a slow start, causing them to struggle out of the gate and find themselves 6.5 games back in the division only 19 games into the season.

One of the biggest reasons for the Reds' offensive struggles was an MLB low BABIP of .245, 21 points less than the next lowest team. Some of the low BABIP can be explained by an overreliance on home runs, but the 2020 Reds were simply unlucky. It wasn’t until the offense started to come together that the Reds made a late-season push to get into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Reds postseason was over in the blink of an eye, dropping two straight to the Atlanta Braves without scoring a run.

Obviously, the season didn’t end the way the Reds wanted, but there are some good takeaways from this season. Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims made huge strides which helped in softening the blow of losing both Bauer and Raisel Iglesias. Eugenio Suarez and Nick Castellanos both had “down years,” but were top 10% of MLB in Barrel%, meaning a lot of their struggles boil down to bad luck. Joey Votto put things together in the back half of the season, hitting .258/.385/.557 (.941 OPS) over his last 29 games. These are all good indicators that the Reds' offense will be better in 2021.

Offseason Review

Key losses from 2020: Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Freddy Galvis

Notable free agent additions: Ummmm

Notable trades: *deep sigh*

Coming into the 2020-2021 offseason the Cincinnati Reds had one goal: acquire a shortstop. Freddy Galvis’ contract was up, and it was clear that Jose Barrero needed more developmental time in the minors, leaving Kyle Farmer as the only “big-league shortstop” on the roster. Despite not being filled with the big names of next year’s free-agent class, there were plenty of good options for the Reds to pursue. Any of Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, and Marcus Semien would’ve been big upgrades over the current options. The Reds were “in the running” for all three of them at one point or another, but as you can deduce from the notable free-agent additions list at the top of this paragraph, the Reds whiffed on all three.

Two moves, within a week of each other set the tone for the Reds offseason. First, the Reds chose to non-tender Archie Bradley, saving $6M in the process. Then, five days later, the Reds traded Raisel Iglesias and cash to the Angels in exchange for Noe Ramirez and Leonardo Rivas, a clear salary dump move. At the time, the Reds tried to spin these moves as freeing up money so that it could be spent elsewhere on the team, most likely shortstop. As of publication, the Reds have only signed two players to Major League contracts for the 2021 season, relievers Sean Doolittle and Edgar Garcia.

It appears as if the Reds went into the offseason hoping that none of the other teams in the NL Central would get better, leaving the door open for them to compete in 2021. Unfortunately for the Reds, the Cardinals had other ideas and were gifted Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. There is still an opportunity for the Reds to compete, as the NL Central is the worst division in baseball, but it is going to be a long, difficult task without an actual shortstop.

***

Memo from Mr. Bob Castellini

Goals for this season: Reach the playoffs, upgrade shortstop

Long term goals: Reach the World Series by 2025

Oh, and I need you to cut payroll as the projected budget reduction for next season will be $34M. You know, the whole pandemic and all.

***

He really expects me to upgrade a position without adding payroll? We really have zero roster flexibility here.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Team News

* The Reds didn't come out of spring training completely unscathed. Four players were added to the injured list before opening day. SP Sonny Gray hit the IL with back spasms, as the Reds take a cautious approach with their #2 starter. He will hopefully only miss 1-2 turns in the rotation at the most. OF Shogo Akiyama will begin the season on the IL with a strained left hamstring. It's looking like Shogo will most likely be out the first month of the season. SP Michael Lorenzen looked set to earn a spot in the rotation, but a shoulder injury has put him on the IL. Shoulder injuries are always tricky when it comes to timetables. He could be out a matter of weeks or months. Finally, SP Brandon Bailey was put on the 60-day IL following Tommy John surgery. He will be out for the year.

* With 2/5 of the projected rotation on the IL to start the season, the Reds have decided to move Tejay Antone into the rotation after originally slating him to be the setup reliever for Lucas Sims. Jeff Hoffman will also feature in the rotation, though the Reds kept Jose De Leon on the staff as well heading into Opening Day.

* To help shore up the bullpen a little bit with these moves, the Reds sent three minor league prospects to the Texas Rangers for RP Ian Kennedy. The 36-year-old is hoping to regain his 2019 form with the Royals, where he earned 30 saves as their closer following a rough 2018 in their starting rotation. Kennedy keeps the tradition of power arms in the Reds bullpen, with his fastball hitting 96 on the gun. There is a reason why it's called Spincinnati. The Reds sent RF Quin Cotton (8th round draft pick in 2019), 2B Francisco Urbaez (amateur free agent signing in 2020), and P Tyler Garbee (19th round draft pick in 2019) to complete the deal.







* It's a good feeling when four of your five top prospects are projected to be on the big league team this year. There was talk that 2B Jonathan India would begin the season with the big club, but the brass decided they would rather see him getting regular at-bats in Louisville versus being on the bench in Cincinnati. Look for him though to get called up sooner rather than later.

[jasontoddwhitt]

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Pitching Matchups

04/01: Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.91 ERA in 2020) vs Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21 ERA in 2020)
04/03: Adam Wainwright (5-3, 3.15 ERA in 2020) vs Tyler Mahle (2-2. 3.59 ERA in 2020)
04/04: Carlos Martinez (0-3, 9.90 ERA in 2020) vs Wade Miley (0-3, 5.65 ERA in 2020)

Series Notes

- Reds went 4-6 last year against the Cardinals.
- Cardinals finished 30-28 last season, their 13th consecutive winning season and 20th in 21 years.

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

SP Brandon Bailey (elbow) - 60-day IL
SP Sonny Gray (back) - 15-day IL
CF Shogo Akiyama (hamstring) - 10-day IL
SP Michael Lorenzen (shoulder) - 15-day IL

St. Louis Cardinals

SP Kwang Hyun Kim (back) - 15-day IL
CF Harrison Bader (forearm) - 10-day IL
SP Miles Mikolas (elbow) - 60-day IL
SP Dakota Hudson (elbow) - 60-day IL

[jasontoddwhitt]

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 1, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis (1-0)	0	0	0	1	0	2	5	0	0	8	10	2
Cincinnati (0-1)	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	7	11	0
W: Genesis Cabrera (1-0) L: Luis Castillo (0-1) S: Jordan Hicks (1)

Opening Day in Cincinnati is a holiday. The city shuts down with parades, gatherings, and a baseball game. A sold-out crowd at Great American Ballpark witnessed a tale of ups and downs. A pitcher's duel to start the game, two bullpens in full meltdown mode, and a comeback that comes up in short. In the end, the home faithful went home dejected as the Reds' comeback came up short as the Cardinals held on for an 8-7 victory.

Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty started the game off with both pitchers dealing. Flaherty had to be pulled at the end of the fourth inning after eating a line drive off of his drive leg. At that point, Flaherty had walked three and struck out five. He had given up two runs (one earned) on three hits when he was pulled. Long reliever Genesis Cabrera came in and pitched two innings of perfect relief, striking out three to bridge the gap to the rest of the bullpen.

The wheels came off on Castillo when he came out in the 7th inning, punctuated by an Austin Dean three-run pinch-hit home run. Castillo walked one and struck out eight over six innings of work. He gave up six runs on eight hits. Sean Doolittle came in and promptly threw more gasoline on the fire, giving up a two-run homer to Paul Goldschmidt before getting out of the inning.

The Reds did score four runs in the 8th inning, punctuated by Joey Votto's two-run double, but Giovanny Gallegos came in and shut the door, and closer Jordan Hicks only needed six pitches to put the Reds away for good.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 3, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis (1-1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Cincinnati (1-1)	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	X	6	9	1
W: Tyler Mahle (1-0) L: Adam Wainwright (0-1)

Tyler Mahle made a big stride last year in his development. His 2022 got off to an amazing start. Mahle only need 107 pitches to mow the Cardinals down, throwing a two-hit complete-game shutout as the Reds defeated the Cardinals 6-0. Mahle walked two and struck out 11 hitters.

Most of the Reds' offense came in the form of Mike Moustakas. Moustakas hit a three-run homer in the 2nd inning off of Adam Wainwright to put the Reds up 3-0. Moustakas added another solo shot in the 4th inning to put the Reds up 5-0.

In four-plus innings of work, Wainwright walked one and struck out two. He gave up five runs on seven hits in the losing effort.

Jesse Winker had to leave the game with a bruised knee. He is day-to-day.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 4, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis (1-2)	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	7	0
Cincinnati (2-1)	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	X	6	8	1
W: Ian Kennedy (1-0) L: Tyler Webb (0-1) S: Lucas Sims (1)

Nick Castellanos' two-run homer off of Cardinals' reliever Tyler Webb in the sixth inning broke a 4-4 tie and the much-maligned Reds bullpen were able to close out the 6-4 victory, taking two of three from the Cardinals.

Both starters were roughed up, with Cardinals' starter Carlos Martinez giving up four runs on five hits in three innings of work. He walked one and struck out two. Wade Miley gave up four runs on seven hits in five-plus innings of work. He walked four and struck out seven. Neither starter factored into the decision.

After 109 pitches and walking the second hitter he face in the 6th inning, new Reds reliever Ian Kennedy relieved Miley and struck out Tommy Edman and Paul Goldschmidt to get out of the inning. Kennedy came out for the 7th inning but loaded up the bases with two outs after two walks and an error at third by Mike Moustakas. Art Warren came into the game and got Austin Dean to ground out to Moustakas to get out of the jam. Amir Garret worked around a walk in the 8th inning and Lucas Sims pitched a 1-2-3 9th inning with two strikeouts to earn his first save of the season.

After being pulled yesterday due to a bruised knee, Jesse Winker was back in the lineup today. He was 1-for-3 with a two-run homer in the third inning.


***

MLB Headlines

04/01 - Lucas Giolito throws a 3-hit shutout in White Sox 6-0 victory over the Angels.
04/02 - Athletics reliever Sergio Romo announces he will retire at the end of the season.
04/04 - Joc Pederson goes 5-for-5 in Cubs 11-4 victory over the Pirates. He was a triple short of the cycle.
04/05 - White Sox announce they have signed SP Lance Lynn to a 5-year extension worth $90M.

[jasontoddwhitt]

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Pitching Matchups

04/05 - Mitch Keller (1-1, 2.91 ERA in 2020) vs Tejay Antone (0-3, 2.80 ERA in 2020)
04/06 - Wil Crowe (0-2, 11.88 ERA in 2020) vs Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 9.28 ERA in 2020)
04/07 - Tyler Anderson (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 2021) vs Luis Castillo (0-1, 9.00 ERA in 2021)

Series Notes

- Reds went 7-3 last season against the Pirates.
- Pirates finished 19-41 last season, their second straight losing season and fourth of the last five seasons.

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

- SP Brandon Bailey (elbow) -- 60-day IL
- SP Sonny Gray (back) -- 15-day IL
- LF Jesse Winker (knee) -- DtD
- CF Shogo Akiyama (hamstring) -- 10-day IL
- SP Michael Lorenzen (shoulder) -- 15-day IL

Pittsburgh Pirates

- SP Steven Brault (forearm) -- 15-day IL
- RP Austin Davis (elbow) -- 15-day IL
- SP Chad Kuhl (triceps) -- 15-day IL
- SP Cody Ponce (forearm) -- 15-day IL
- RP Blake Cederlind (elbow) -- 60-day IL
- RP Kyle Crick (illness) -- 15-day IL
- SP Jose Soriano (elbow) -- 60-day IL
- RP Edgar Santana (suspension) -- 15-day IL

[jasontoddwhitt]

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 5, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh (2-2)	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	7	1
Cincinnati (2-2)	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5	1
W: Mitch Keller (1-0) L: Tejay Antone (0-1) S: Richard Rodriguez (2)

A magnificent effort from Pirates starter Mitch Keller propelled the Pirates to a 2-1 victory today over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark. In seven-plus innings of work, Keller gave up one run on three hits. He walked one and struck out six.

Tejay Antone was solid in his first start of the season, but couldn't get any run support in the losing effort. In six innings of work, Antone gave up two runs on six hits. He didn't give up any walks and struck out three hitters.

Pirates 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes broke the 1-1 deadlock in the sixth inning with an RBI single off of Antone. In four trips to the plate, he had a single and a double.

The Reds were able to load the bases in the bottom of the 8th inning, but Pirates reliever David Bednar forced Nick Castellanos to chop one back to the pitcher to get the final out of the inning. Pirates closer Richard Rodriguez pitched a perfect 9th to get his second save of the season.

Reds CF Nick Senzel was pulled from the game after injuring his knee sliding into second base in the sixth inning. He was diagnosed with a bruised knee and is officially listed as day-to-day.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 6, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh (2-3)	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	9	0
Cincinnati (3-2)	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	X	6	10	1
W: Jeff Hoffman (1-0) L: Wil Crowe (0-1)

Jeff Hoffman may not have a full-time role in the rotation once Sonny Gray returns, but he's making the most of the opportunity. Hoffman pitched seven strong innings as the Reds tagged the Pirates 10 hits in a 6-2 victory.

Hoffman scattered eight hits across seven innings of work. He didn't surrender any walks and struck out eight hitters en route to his first victory on the season. Hoffman also got it done with the bat today. His RBI single in the 4th inning got the Reds on the board. Hoffman would also single in the 6th inning, later coming around to score on Nick Castellanos' two-run double that busted the game open for the Reds.

Reds' catcher Tucker Barnhart would also play a big role in today's victory. Barnhart would go 2-for-4 with a double and three runs batted in, one of which came on a bases-loaded walk in the 5th inning that tied the game.

Pirates' starter Wil Crowe would struggle today in picking up the loss. Crowe worked five-plus innings, giving up three runs on seven hits. He would walk four and strike out four.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
Apr 7, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Pittsburgh (3-3)	1	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	6	10	0
Cincinnati (3-3)	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7	0
W: Tyler Anderson (2-0) L: Luis Castillo (0-2) S: Richard Rodriguez (3)

A standout pitching performance by Pirates' ace Tyler Anderson would see the Pirates take the series from the Reds today in a 6-4 victory.

Anderson would pitch six-plus innings and give up one run on four hits. He walked one and struck out five to improve to (2-0) on the season. The Reds lit up Pirates' reliever Miguel Yajure in the 7th inning, as he gave up three runs on three hits before getting out of the inning. Reliever Clay Holmes worked around two walks in the 8th inning by getting Joey Votto to ground into a double play. Closer Richard Rodriguez also worked around two walks in the 9th inning but got two big strikeouts to close the door on the Reds threat for his third save of the season.

Reds ace Luis Castillo struggled in his second start of the season, giving up five runs on seven hits in five-plus innings of work. He walked two and struck out four to drop his record to (0-2).

Reds pitchers failed to get Pirates' LF Bryan Reynolds out one time today. Reynolds was 3-for-3 with a walk, two doubles and a run batted in. The lone bright spot for the Reds offense today was CF Nick Senzel, who went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two runs batted in.

***

MLB Headlines

04/06 - Padres place SS Fernando Tatis, Jr. on the IL due to a fractured thumb. He is expected to miss 3-4 weeks.
04/06 - The Astros traded 1B Yuli Gurriel to the Brewers for RP Phil Bickford and minor league SP Ethan Small.
04/07 - The Athletics place SP Sean Manaea on the IL due to shoulder inflammation. He is expected to miss 5-6 weeks.

[jasontoddwhitt]

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Pitching Matchups

04/09 - Tyler Mahle (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs Luke Weaver (0-1, 3.00 ERA)
04/10 - Wade Miley (0-0, 6.75 ERA) vs Caleb Smith (0-0, 4.50 ERA)
04/11 - Tejay Antone (0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs Matt Peacock (1-0, 5.40 ERA)

Series Notes

- Teams did not play in 2020.
- Diamondbacks finished in last place in the NL West at 25-35. It was the first time the Diamondbacks finished in the cellar since 2014.

Players of Note

Arizona Diamondbacks

C Carson Kelly -- .481 AVG (13-for-27), 3 HR, 14 RBI over last six games.
CF Ketel Marte -- .500 AVG (11-for-22), 2 HR, 8 RBI over last five games.

Cincinnati Reds

None of note

Injury Report

Arizona Diamondbacks

RF Cole Calhoun (knee) -- 10-day IL
RP Stefan Crichton (shoulder) -- 15-day IL
SP Zac Gallen (wrist) -- 15-day IL
RP Tyler Clippard (shoulder) -- 60-day IL

Cincinnati Reds

SP Brandon Bailey (shoulder) -- 60-day IL
SP Sonny Gray (back) -- 15-day IL
CF Nick Senzel (knee) -- DtD
CF Shogo Akiyama (hamstring) -- 10-day IL
SP Michael Lorenzen (shoulder) -- 15-day IL

[jasontoddwhitt]

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 9, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati (4-3)	0	1	0	0	7	0	0	0	3	11	13	1
Arizona (5-3)	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	10	1
W: Tyler Mahle (2-0) L: Luke Weaver (0-2)

The Cincinnati Reds put up a massive crooked number in the 5th inning to blow the game wide open as they went on to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-2 in the first game of the series.

All eight players in the Reds lineup got at least one hit, with Nick Castellanos leading the way going 2-for-4 with 4 RBIs from the 5th inning grand slam and 2 runs scored. Kyle Farmer also had a big game, going 3-for-4 with a double and a 3-run homer in the 9th inning. Eugenio Suarez hopefully got out of his slump, going 2-for-4 with a homer and 2 RBIs.

All the run support was helpful for Tyler Mahle, who was not at his sharpest today. Mahle gave up two runs while working around eight hits in 5 and 1/3 innings pitched. He walked four and struck out four in the winning effort.

Luke Weaver had a good start going till the wheels came completely off in the 5th inning. Weaver gave up six runs on six hits in 4 and 2/3 innings pitched. He walked two and struck out three in the losing effort.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 10, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati (5-3)	0	5	2	0	0	2	5	0	0	14	16	1
Arizona (5-4)	0	2	0	2	0	2	0	0	2	8	12	1
W: Wade Miley (1-0) L: Caleb Smith (0-1)

The Reds hit parade in the desert continued today, as every Reds player except Joey Votto teed off on Diamondbacks to the tune of 14 runs on 16 hits as the Reds cruised to a 14-8 victory.

Nick Castellanos is enjoying the road trip, as he once again raked the ball. Castellanos went 3-for-4 with three runs batted in, three runs scored, two walks, and his third home run of the season. Tucker Barnhart was back in the lineup today after getting the day off yesterday, and he continued his hot start at the dish. Barnhart went 3-for-4 with three runs batted in, two runs scored, a walk, and his second home run of the season. Eugenio Suarez also joined in the fun, forgetting his horrible start in Cincinnati. Suarez was 3-for-6, with a double, a triple, and five runs batted in.

Wade Miley was not sharp today, but did well enough to get the victory. Miley gave up six runs on nine hits in 5 and 2/3 innings pitched. He struck out one to get his first victory on the season.

The Reds jumped all over Diamondbacks starter Caleb Smith in the second inning, who was pulled after completing that winning. Smith gave up five runs on five hits in two innings of work. He walked two and struck out three to pick up his first loss on the season.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 11, 2021	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Cincinnati (5-4)	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	10	0
Arizona (6-4)	2	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	X	8	15	0
W: Matt Peacock (2-0) L: Tejay Antone (0-2)

It looked like the Diamondbacks and the Reds were once again heading towards a slugfest, but the bullpen of the Diamondbacks put the handcuffs on the Reds bats to hold them scoreless in the final four innings. The Reds bullpen was unable to do the same as the Diamondbacks avoided the series sweep with an 8-4 victory.

Every batter in the Diamondbacks lineup got at least one hit in the eight-run outburst. Josh Rojas was a major factor, leading the game off with a home run on the first pitch of the game to set the tone. He went 2-for-3 with two solo home runs for his third and fourth of the season. Daulton Varsho also had a big game, going 3-for-4 with two runs batted in. Pavin Smith also chipped in, going 2-for-4 with a triple, a run batted in, and two runs scored.

Matt Peacock picked up his second victory of the season. Peacock gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings of work. He walked two and struck out five.

Tejay Antone picked up his second loss of the season. Antone gave up five runs on 10 hits in 4 and 1/3 innings of work. He walked one and struck out one.

***

MLB Headlines

04/08 - Diamondbacks C Carson Kelly goes 5-for-5 in a 10-4 over the Rockies.
04/09 - Yankees sign free agent SP Aaron Brooks to a 1-year, $3.5M contract.
04/10 - Cardinals announce SP Adam Wainwright is done for the year after suffering a torn flexor tendon in his elbow.
04/11 - Mariners announce CF Kyle Lewis had a setback in his recovery from a bone bruise in his knee and will probably be out of action for another week.
04/11 - Mariners place 2B Brandon Lowe on the 10-day IL with a bone bruise in his wrist.
04/11 - Rangers 3B Nick Solack goes 5-for-5 in a 13-3 triumph over the Padres.