Keeping The Band Together - 2016 Baltimore Orioles

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Overview

Welcome to a new series of “The Show” Baseball, I am your host Keith Wilson. This year I’ll be bringing you the 2016 Baltimore Orioles and their storyline of “Keeping The Band Together”. As always this chise will be an open thread of discussion for those to comment and offer their words of encouragement or critique. I like to engage with fellow players and talk baseball so feel free to give your opinion. I’ve done a lot of work in getting to this point of starting my franchise, which I’ll high-lite below starting with the specs.

Game: MLB 16 The Show (PS4)
Rosters: Custom (Hybrid V2, with updated batting stance, pitching motion, stamina & speed tweaks. Also BoomerSooner CAP for 2016 Draft players imported) Accurate MLB Disabled List for Opening Day.
Sliders: Custom - Hitting: Dynamic Difficulty All-Star Plus / Pitching: Hall Of Fame. (based off 60 games of exhibition play)
Style: Realistic. I’ll play every out of all 162 games. 30-team control.

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Orioles stick with what’s familiar, retain core leadership group.

The 2016 Baltimore Orioles season is the 116th season in franchise history, the 63rd in Baltimore, and the 25th at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. They will be attempting to improve on their 2015 record of 81–81 (.500).

Before skipper Buck Showalter and General Manager Dan Duquette arrived in Charm City some 5 years ago, The Orioles we're a perennial laughing stock and all around loser on and off the baseball diamond. Baltimore re-built under the direction of Andy MacPhail and morphed into a contender with Showalter and Duquette at the helm. Since then, they've only gone out and compiled the best regular season record in the majors and made the playoffs two out of the last four years in a very competitive American League East. This year is no different. Being just two years removed from an appearance in the American League Championship Series, Baltimore feels it's window of opportunity is just as much open now as it was then. In a division that's competitively balanced throughout and honestly a crapshoot, many respected baseball minds see Baltimore as no better than a fourth/fifth place team.

The 2016 AL East features a revamped Boston Red Sox franchise, a Toronto team poised to capitalize off last years success, a Yankees organization that can always buy their way into contention and a Tampa Bay Rays team featuring some of baseballs best pitching. The chatter around Baltimore's club house has been heard loud and clear. The 2016 O's will boasts one of MLB's most powerful line-ups, but their pitching staff can't say the same. In time we’ll find out just how high these Birds will fly.

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Preview

This week, Sounds Of The Show is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 26: The Baltimore Orioles.

2015 Record and Finish: 81–81 (.500), third place in American League East (16th overall)
2016 SOTS Projected Record: 69-93 (.426), fifth place in the AL East

The Case For:

On the heels of a modest season that many feared would be the last in Baltimore for first baseman Chris Davis and catcher Matt Wieters, the Orioles managed to retain both this winter thanks to Davis inking the most lucrative contract in franchise history and Wieters joining the first wave of players to accept a qualifying offer. Davis, who rebounded to 47 homers last year should continue to lead a power parade that includes third baseman Manny Machado (35 homers), centerfielder Adam Jones (27 homers), second baseman Jonathan Schoop (15 homers in 86 games) as well as newcomers Mark Trumbo (22 homers despite a partial-season exile in Seattle) and Pedro Alvarez (27 homers with Pittsburgh).

Of that group, the biggest promise belongs to Machado, who is coming off a season where he put up across-the-board career bests: .286/.359/.502 with a 131 OPS+, and 20 steals. His 7.1 Wins Above Replacement (baseball-reference.com version) was only second to baseballs best player Mike Trout. Machado doesn't turn 23 until July 6, so it's entirely possible that the best is yet to come from this budding superstar.

Over the off-season Baltimore retained set-up man Darren O'Day, who has paired with closer Zach Britton to become the game's most valuable one-two bullpen punch. Manager Buck Showalter's use of that duo and his facility with handling the rest of his bullpen should help mitigate some of the question marks in the Orioles' rotation.

The Case Against:

Even in a division that's decidedly short on top-shelf starting pitching, the Orioles' rotation scares nobody. Their only starter to qualify for the ERA title and turn in a mark below 4.00, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, skipped town and is now a Marlin. The team’s back and fourth shuttling of top prospect Kevin Gausman between Triple A and MLB along with the inconsistencies of Chris Tillman have raised questions about the way Baltimore develops pitching from within. Both Ubaldo Jimenez and recently signed Yovani Gallardo provide a veteran presence but seem to have their best days behind them.

On the offensive side, for all the power that the team boasts, getting on base could be a real problem. Trumbo and three returning starters are coming off seasons with on-base percentages of .310 or lower, and there's no guarantee they get more than that from their collection of question marks in left-field (Korean import Hyun-soo Kim, Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard and veteran holdover Nolan Reimold). The fact of the matter is Baltimore’s starting pitching remains a concern, and their ability to get on base is a major question mark.

X Factor:

Over the past half-decade or so, the Orioles' track record in converting their blue-chip pitching prospects into viable major leaguers leaves something to be desired. Jake Arrieta needed a trade to Chicago to unlock his potential; Britton and lefty Brian Matusz had to move to the bullpen; and Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey have been derailed by injuries.

Tillman was the exception to the rule for 2 1/2 seasons, pitching to a 3.42 ERA (118 ERA+) from mid-2012 though '14, earning All-Star honors in '13 and topping 200 innings twice despite a gaudy home run rate of 1.2 per nine. Although last year wasn’t what Baltimore fans had come to expect from Tillman, he did have some encouraging stretches, including a nine-start span from June 28 to Aug. 22 during which he pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a 3.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. During that time, he added a sinker and improved his changeup, but the success proved fleeting. If the Orioles are to contend, he'll have to find a way to rebound to his 2012–14 form, particularly given a rotation that offers no sure things.

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5 Burning Questions

1. Q: The O’s will hit, we know that. But will the team feature enough on base skills to take advantage of the powerful line-up GM Dan Duquette has built?

A: The team features a lineup that could have eight players finish the season with more than 20 home runs. The addition of Rule 5 leftfielder Joey Rickard may give the team the added dimension of speed and high on base percentage, but that’s yet to be seen. Also Korean OF Hyun Soo-Kim has the potential to help in the on base department if he’s able to adjust to Major League pitching. Time will only tell if the Birds have what it takes to make the adjustment and take advantage of its power filled line-up.

2. Q: Will the lack of quality starting pitching lead to an overuse of Baltimore great bullpen?

A: The bullpen, anchored by closer Zach Britton, is among the best in the league. The return of Darren O’Day, extended use of rookie Mychal Givens and reliable arm Brad Brach will help shorten games. However as stated previously, the biggest concern with the bullpen will be overuse. Baltimore will need its starters to consistently go deeper in games to avoid such a thing. Manager Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette have done a masterful job in the past of using every last option when it comes to managing the bullpen. Their track record makes me believe they’ll continue to find ways to maximize every capable arm that can compete.

3. Q: Simply put, what's to make of Baltimore’s rotation?

A: The O’s fell from Division Champs in 2014 to a .500 club last season largely because the starting rotation had a precipitous drop-off. Showalter will need to find a reliable fifth starter, and hope for Kevin Gausman’s accession to the upper echelon of MLB starters. In a rotation full of suspects the maturation of 2012 first round draft pick Gausman could be the biggest factor in predicting 2016 success for the O’s. The time is now for the 25-year-old righty to make good on his potential and establish himself as a difference maker on a contending team. The health and performance of Gausman will either silence the O’s doubters or validate their criticisms. Chris Tillman obviously has to regain his pre-2015 form in order to stabilize and anchor the O’s rotation. The departure of Wei-Yin Chen and signing of Gallardo is a net loss for Baltimore, but the latter’s durability is a plus.

4. Q: What’s the situation regarding once top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy? And what are Baltimore options in dealing with this uncommon situation?

A: Yes, Baltimore faces a unique situation with Dylan Bundy. Obviously we all know Dylan roared though the farm system in his first professional season back in 2012. That performance earned him a September call-up. Since, which spans 3 1/2 years Dylan has pitched a grand total of 56 innings none above Double A. Unfortunately for the Orioles, Bundy was signed to a major league contract upon being drafted. As a result The Orioles don't want to risk passing Bundy and the potential he still possess through waivers and exposing him to the other 29 teams. With all that being said, Showalter has made it clear that Bundy will work out of the bullpen and be handled with precaution until the organization believes he can handle a larger role. Expect Dylan to be on a strict pitch count and innings limit. I do not for-see Bundy starting a game for this years O’s team unless A. he’s shown he's healthy enough to carry such a workload, B. he’s been effective in the previous role he was in and C. The Orioles are desperate for consistency in the rotation. Even then I wouldn’t bet the farm Bundy’s name is penciled in as a starter this year, but stranger things have happened.

5. Q: Will Jonathan Schoop take the next step in his development? The tools are there, the potential is there, and he’s shown flashes. What can we expect from Baltimore’s starting second basemen this season?

A: For Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop, "The Sky Is The Limit". Everyone in the O's' clubhouse has done the mental math and seems to have an idea of what a breakout season for the 24-year-old Schoop will look like. Many are simply doubling his 15 home runs in 86 games and slapping 30-home-run potential on him this season. Schoop has performed stellar this spring and many think he's capable of winning the Gold Glove as well as Silver Slugger. "He's a special player. He's a very special player, and I think this is the year that everybody's going to see who Jonathan Schoop is", said teammate and best friend Manny Machado.

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Spring Training Story Lines

(Joey Rickard Puts Best Foot Forward)

Surprise of spring thus far has been OF Joey Rickard. The 24 year old rule V draft pick (from Tampa Bay) has been tearing the cover off the ball and providing an on base presence Baltimore so desperately needs. Obviously it's hard to get excited over spring training stats (whether a player is over/under performing), but it's almost impossible not to recognize the job Rickard has done up to date. I think it's safe to say he'll be headed north to man leftfield on Opening Day and I expect him to be penciled in everyday until he shows regression. - playing 23 of 27 games Rickard has put up a .396/.475/.566 slash, using his speed to swipe 5 bases while providing solid defense patrolling the outfield.

(Hyun Soo Kim Struggles with Adjustment To MLB)

Hyun Soo-Kim, the corner outfielder brought in to compete and ultimately be Baltimore's everyday leftfielder has under performed so far in spring training. The import from South Korea has not looked comfortable. Kim hasn’t been able to adjust to major league pitching, especially the fastball velocity many pitchers possess at this level. Many in the O's organization believe it's best for Kim to be optioned to Triple A Norfolk to learn the American game and build confidence. Kim's camp sees different, refusing to be optioned (clause in contract). So essentially The Orioles have a $7 million outfielder who they’ve decided they don’t have room for on their Opening Day roster. We'll continue to keep a close eye on this story and see how it plays out. As of now, expect the Orioles to find a way to send Kim back across the pacific - Kim started spring training 0-23 and has put fourth a .182/.229/.182 line with one walk and no extra base hits in 44 plate appearances.

(Baltimore Starting Pitching Woes Continue)

Spring training did little to quell the doubts about the Orioles rotation heading into this season. If anything, concern about the team's starting pitching became more glaring during exhibition games. Talk entering spring training focused on the team needing a rebound season from right-hander Chris Tillman, as well as continued progress from right-hander Kevin Gausman. One week into spring training, the Orioles signed veteran right-hander Yovani Gallardi (2 year, $22 million dollars), in an effort to shore up the rotation and add a reliable innings eater.

With spring training coming to an end, the concern with the starting rotation grows more acute. A number of recent starts have been much improved, but overall the jury is still out and hasn't been giving instruction by the judge. - Kevin Gausman has looked the best of the presumed starters, but there's room for improvement; hard to do with Gausman heading to the the DL. Chris Tillman is behind schedule but has looked better and better in recent appearances. Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jiminez have both had experiences all over the map, probably more poor than good. Miguel Gonzalez has been released. Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright both lack experience but will be relied on to balance out the back end of Baltimore's rotation. Wright possess all the physical tools but his inability to make adjustments has hindered his development. Tyler Wilson has had the best overall results this spring as he sports a 2.89 ERA but his small stature and not having any one dominant pitch, has Wilson being overlooked. With it being less than 80 hours to opening day, Baltimore will have to make due with what it has and hope for the best.

(The O's Pen Readying For Season)

The back end of the bullpen is not surprisingly in good shape. Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens and Brad Brach have all been touched-up a bit here and there, but on most occasions they appear ready to take on the 2016 season. Health setbacks have affected both bullpen lefties T.J. McFarland and Brian Matusz. The latter is particularly behind schedule in making a return. The Orioles have other options to turn to, albeit not left-handed. Looking especially good is Oliver Drake who is yet to be scored upon after six innings of four-hit baseball. Vance Worley is a long relief possibility, who hasn't looked stellar overall but has put together some quality innings as of late. It would seem that the Orioles need to find a way to include him. The injuries above may make that possible. One who will surely be on the roster is Dylan Bundy. With concerns as to if he would be in sufficient form to contribute, he has pitched very effectively in all but one of his appearances. Expect Bundy to work in low leverage situations to begin the season.

(Escaped Unscathed *knock on wood*)

The most important stat of spring training is the column labeled Disabled List. For the most part, The O's have stayed clear of many injuries although they've been hit with a few recently. To start the year Baltimore will be at full strength in the field, something they'll need as the pitching will be without two key components entering the 2016 campaign. Starter Kevin Gausman and lefty specialist Brian Matusz headline the group currently on the DL. Expect both back no later than week three of the season barring any setbacks.

As in recent years, Baltimore will be hoping and praying the baseball Gods reign down great health throughout the 162 game season. If that happens, Baltimore figures to put up a good fight in the crapshoot American League East.

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Opening Day

With opening day around the corner, Buck Showalter and the rest of his coaching staff have put the finishing touches on their version of the 2016 Baltimore Orioles. Obviously this roster will not be the same 1-25 at seasons end, but this is what management believes gives the O's their best opportunity to start the regular season off strong. This years team includes just 10 holdovers from last years Opening Day roster. Take a look below at the team and projected starters/line-up.

Pitching: With Gausman on the shelf, the Orioles will break camp with four official starting pitchers, they don't need a fifth starter until April 10, the sixth game of the season. Until then, the O's are using an eight-man bullpen, and one of righties Vance Worley or Tyler Wilson will likely shift into the No. 5 starter's role if not needed in relief before then. For the third consecutive year, Tillman will be Baltimore's presumed ace of the staff and toe the rubber for Opening Day. Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jiminez will follow, with Mike Wright rounding out the rotation.

The Birds' bullpen doesn't include a true lefty specialist with Matusz out. T.J. McFarland (who is normally used in longer relief stints) is the sole southpaw other than closer Zach Britton. Most of the projected pieces are in place for Baltimore to continue its recent dominance of late game pitching. Showalter and company will look to shorten ballgames with many relievers capable of pitching multiple innings (if need be).


Starting Rotation


1.Chris Tillman

2.Yovani Gallardo

3.Ubaldo Jiminez

4.Mike Wright


Bullpen


Long Relief - Tyler Wilson

Middle Relief - Vance Worley

Middle Relief - Dylan Bundy

Middle Relief - Mychal Givens

Lefty Special - T.J. McFarland

Set-Up - Brad Bach

Set-Up - Darren O'Day

Closer - Zach Britton


Position: Machado, Jones and Davis start 2016 like they finished '15, manning their respective positions and giving pitchers nightmares atop the batting order. Trumbo, a traditional first basemen will switch positions from rightfield and bat clean up. Switch hitting catcher Matt Wieters will bat fifth, with backup catcher Caleb Joseph getting his fair share of playing time to spell the brittle Wieters. Newly signed Pedro Alvarez will platoon with Nolan Reimold which could bode well in the O's favor. Shortstop J.J. Hardy bats seventh and looks to bounce back from two subpar injury riddled seasons, while Jonathan Schoop anticipates taking the next step in his development. Rounding out the starting line-up will be rule V draft pick Joey Rickard whose torrid spring not only earned him a roster spot, but a start in leftfield on Opening Day.


Baltimore's bench will include the aforementioned Caleb Joseph as backup catcher, utility infielder and outfielder Ryan Flaherty, longtime Oriole Nolan Reimold and Korean Hyun Soo-Kim a surprise after not offering much during spring training.


Batting Order: vs.RHP/vs.LHP


1.(3B) Manny Machado R

2.(CF) Adam Jones R

3.(1B) Chris Davis L

4.(RF) Mark Trumbo R

5.(C) Matt Wieters S

6.(DH) Pedro Alvarez L / Nolan Reimold R

7.(SS) J.J. Hardy R

8.(2B) Jonathan Schoop R

9.(LF) Joey Rickard R


Reserves: C Caleb Joseph, IF Ryan Flaherty, OF Hyun Soo-Kim, OF Nolan Reimold.


Like most things on a team run by Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter, this roster is subject to change — perhaps quickly. With that being said, Orioles brass is excited for this upcoming year. They look forward to making the city of Baltimore proud by their play on the field and involvement in the community. Tomorrow can't come fast enough. Opening Day is here!

Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart - 2016

• Catcher
• Matt Wieters (S)
• Caleb Joseph (R)

• First Base
• Chris Davis (L)
• Mark Trumbo (R)

• Second Base
• Jon Schoop (R)
• Ryan Flaherty (L)

• Third Base
• Many Machado (R)
• Ryan Flaherty (L)

• Shortstop
• J.J. Hardy (R)
• Ryan Flaherty (L)

• Left Field
• Joey Rickard (R)
• Nolan Reimold (R)
• Hyun Soo-Kim (L)

• Center Field
• Adam Jones (R)
• Joey Rickard (R)

• Right Field
• Mark Trumbo (R)
• Nolan Reimold (R)

• Starting Pitcher
• Chris Tillman (R)
• Yovani Gallardo (R)
• Ubaldo Jimenez (R)
• Mike Wright (R)
• Tyler Wilson (R) (Long-man)

• Relief Pitcher
• Vance Worley (R)
• Dylan Bundy (R)
• Mychal Givens (R)
• T.J. McFarland (L)
• Brad Bach (R)
• Darren O\'Day (R)

• Closer
• Zach Britton (L)

• Designated Hitter
• Pedro Alvarez (L)

• Disabled List
• Kevin Gausman (R) (SP)
• Brian Matusz (L) (RP)
• Jimmy Paredes (S) (OF)

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1 of 162 - Baltimore celebrates 25 years at Oriole Park at Camden Yards!

Opening days have been very happy days indeed for the fans of the O's. The Birds are currently building on a six year Opening Day win streak, having won a total of 12 in the past 15 years. That is impressive. Orioles fans have a tendency to perhaps only talk about the past four successful years, but Opening days have been filled with a lot of joy for a long time, even during the dark years.

3 game series (Minnesota Twins)

4-4-16 Chris Tillman vs Ervin Santana
4-6-16 Yovani Gallardo vs Kyle Gibson
4-7-16 Ubaldo Jimenez vs Phil Hughes

The Minnesota Twins come to town having played Baltimore six times during exhibition (Grapefruit League) play, most of any opponent. Besides that, The Twins owned Baltimore last year sweeping the season series 7-0, and putting the nail in the coffin for the O's playoff aspirations. The Birds were out scored 43 to 18 by Minnesota.

The Orioles' record was 62-57 on August 20th when the Twins came and spanked the O's 15-2, seeping the four game series, and sending the Birds into a losing skid of 12 of the next 13 games. Baltimore never recovered. Tillman lost his only start against the Twins last year, giving up three runs in 6.2 innings. For his career, he is 0-4 in six games against Minnesota, with a 4.82 ERA.

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Game 1: Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
Location: Oriole Park
Attendance: 45,971 (100% Full)
Weather: 66 degrees, Cloudy
Wind: 7.8 MPH, Blowing in from CF
Scheduled First Pitch: 3:05pm

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Baltimore loses First Opening Day Game in 7 years!

Chris Tillman, Baltimore's #1 starter didn't put the "A" in ace as he lasted just 3.1 innings. Tillman surrendered 5 runs; 3 earned, on 7 hits, striking out 4 with 1 walk. Minnesota countered with Ervin Santana who went 5.2 innings, also giving up 7 hits with 4 runs crossing the plate, striking out 6 against 3 base on balls.

- Tillman had trouble with command, and consistently found himself in deep counts.
- Santana never had an easy 1-2-3 inning, but he found ways to get key outs when needed.
- Baltimore's bullpen, particularly the front end didn't deliver and as a result, Minnesota plated 4 additional runs.
- The Twins bullpen (Fien, Jepsen, May) combined for 3.1 innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 run.

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More times than not scoring 5 runs should get you a "W" in the win column. In the case of the 2016 Baltimore Orioles, that may not ring true. Coming into the season Baltimore had concerns regarding its starting pitching. Unfortunately those concerns weren't answered during the offseason, spring training or Opening Day. AND if this first game is any indication The O's are going to have to slug their way to wins.
Baltimore's offense held true to its identity. Chris Davis, who in the offseason signed the most lucrative contract in Baltimore's history led the way with 4 hits including a solo shot to straight away center. Jonathan Schoop, who is expected to take the next step in his development contributed 3 RBI's on 2 hits, one being a 2 run home run. Machado, Wieters and Schoop each doubled, with Wieters adding a sacrifice fly in the 9th to bring home his first run of the year.
Obviously what The Orioles brought at the plate wasn't enough as Minnesota led by Joe Mauer (3-5, 4 RBI, 1 HR) crossed the plate 9 times. Every Twin except one; Eddie Rosario reached base via a hit, and rookie import Byung Ho-Park looked every bit as advertised going 4-5 including his first Major League home run.

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- The Orioles strikeout 10 times while drawing 5 walks.
- Jones, Hardy and Rickard were only O's not to record a hit. Going a combined 0-12.
- Wieters led the way with 2 walks. Trumbo, Alvarez and Rickard each drew one free pass as well.
- Minnesota's top 3 (Dozier, Mauer and Sano) set the tone as each had at least 2 hits; Mauer with 3. The trio went a combined 8-14, with 7 RBI's and 4 runs scored.
- Minnesota struck out 7 times while working the count to draw 2 walks.

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- Tomorrow's an off day for both clubs. The series resumes April 6th as Baltimore sends Yovani Gallardo to the hill as Minnesota counters with Kyle Gibson. Baltimore looks to notch its first victory of the 2016 campaign and Minnesota looks to continue its recent run of dominance over The Birds.