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Straight Outta Kauffman (OOTP 24)

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Old 09-28-2023, 10:46 AM   #73
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Re: Straight Outta Kauffman (OOTP 24)

After falling behind due to work and other issues, I've been playing catch-up. I've caught up to September 21st, where I'll play out the rest of the season on here.

I'll post the scores here:

@ Seattle (August 25-27)
Royals 1, Mariners 3
Royals 1, Mariners 4
Royals 5, Mariners 6

vs Pittsburgh (August 28-30)
Pirates 2, Royals 3
Pirates 5, Royals 3
Pirates 0, Royals 6

vs Boston (Sep 1-3)
Red Sox 2, Royals 7
Red Sox 9, Royals 14
Red Sox 6, Royals 5

vs Chi. Sox (Sep 4-6)
White Sox 5, Royals 2
White Sox 2, Royals 1
White Sox 7, Royals 5

@ Toronto (Sep 8-10)
Royals 5, Blue Jays 1
Royals 2, Blue Jays 12
Royals 3, Blue Jays 4

@ Chi. Sox (Sep 11-13)
Royals 1, White Sox 10
Royals 4, White Sox 2
Royals 7, White Sox 4

vs Houston (Sep 15-17)
Astros 7, Royals 6 (F/10)
Astros 8, Royals 5
Astros 6, Royals 5

vs Cleveland (Sep 18-20)
Guardians 1, Royals 8
Guardians 8, Royals 7 (F/10)
Guardians 1, Royals 3

Royals Current Record: 53-100
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Old 09-28-2023, 11:01 AM   #74
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ROYALS MAILBAG VOL. 5 (09/21)



2023 Mailbag, Vol. 5

By Will Keeler | Kansas City Star | September 21st, 2023


The last regular season mailbag is coming a bit late in the season, but with the season nearly over, the talk has turned to 2024. What changes should the Royals expect on the coaching staff? New scouting director Brian Bridges comes over from the Giants after orchestrating some of the current Braves squad that is doing well; what can the Royals expect there? Does Zack Greinke come back for next year, or does he sail off into the sunset just short of 3K strikeouts? Those topics and more are covered in the final installment of the 2023 mailbag.

What's a feasible Opening Day lineup for 2024? Are there any upgrades they could make outside of the organization (trades, free agency)?

I know that the active and 40-man rosters are going to be in flux, but here's what I would go with given what's on the roster currently:

3B Garcia
SS BWJ
DH Pasquantino
C Perez
LF Melendez
RF Velazquez
1B Pratto
2B Massey
CF Isbel

If Salvador Perez is back in 2024 (more on him next), they should be able to make the trio of he, Pratto, and Pasquantino work between first base/catcher/DH. It's also a very lefty-heavy roster when you throw in the switch hitter in Drew Waters, who is likely the odd man out in the outfield with much better career splits as a left-handed hitter. Freddy Fermin is also likely to get significant innings as the reserve catcher; and others like Dairon Blanco, Nate Eaton, and Samad Taylor are potential righty bats off the bench that can play multiple spots.

As far as upgrades outside of the organization? I don't think they'll be swimming in the free agent waters, at least not for this offseason. The part of the team that is most likely to undergo any significant changes is on the pitching staff, especially if Zack Greinke decides to call it a career (more on him below, also).

Gun to your head -- is Perez on the Opening Day roster in 2024?

The chances are overwhelmingly in favor of that being the case since he holds all the cards in terms of his future, thanks to his 10/5 rights. He moved his family to the Kansas City area, and his kids are in schools in the area, so there's some roots here. That said, the fact that there was news around the deadline that he was being shopped tells me that he's willing to waive those rights for the right team.

Miami has been the most common destination given that he has an offseason home there (and he also trains there), but they'll probably ask the Royals to absorb most of his remaining salary to make it work. I'm not sure the Royals are in a position to eat a lot of that money since they still need to upgrade the major league roster heading into 2024. Kim Ng could make it worth their while with a B-level or better prospect (Jacob Berry as a reclamation project?), but the Marlins don't have a super-deep minor league system currently.

The Giants, Yankees, and Red Sox also make sense for Perez, since they are ballparks where he could put up 30-plus homeruns and make the higher price tag worth it. The free agent class of catchers is also rather thin, so Perez would represent at least one of the top two or three backstops available if the Royals were to continue to actively shop him.

Would you bring Zack back?

For the right price I'd be willing to. He's largely the same pitcher as he was in 2022, only with a few more homeruns allowed and slightly fewer walks with slightly more strikeouts. However, his velocity continues to be an issue, as he's still working with a mid-80's fastball and will be 40 on Opening Day next year. He's dealt with more nagging injuries this year, and has also made a couple of appearances out of the bullpen to help alleviate some the workload. Despite all that, he's managed to keep the same excellent command while upping his strikeout numbers, so perhaps he has one more good season in him if he doesn't suffer any further declines in velocity.

He's also a very thoughtful, eccentric personality, and it's certainly possible he decides he's done enough and calls it a career. He has houses on both coasts, and is a fairly avid surfer in the offseason. I mean, as I'm writing this, he's put up six innings of one-run baseball with no walks and four strikeouts in less than seventy pitches against the Guardians. The guy can still pitch, and if this is indeed his last season, he went out on a very strong note in front of the home crowd.

Records-wise, he's tied with Bret Saberhagen for the fourth-most strikeouts in team history (1,093). He's just twenty-nine punchouts away from 3,000 in his career, long considered one of the gold standards for Hall of Fame voters. Only nineteen other pitchers can say they've reached that.

Should we expect any changes on the coaching staff?

I assume this is in response to the Royals hiring former Braves scout and executive Brian Bridges as the team's new scouting director. It's reasonable that there will be some shuffling amongst the coaches, but I don't expect any of the big four (manager, bench coach, hitting & pitching coaches) to be changed. Perhaps hitting coach Alec Zumwalt goes back down and re-assumes the minor league hitting program director position full-time, but by all accounts, has done a masterful job juggling both roles, even if the major league results haven't been great.

But I want to take this opportunity to talk about the addition of Bridges to the front office. He's a former Braves scout, but came on in 2007, which was after Dayton Moore and JJ Picollo left there for the Royals in 2006, so he has only loose ties to those two (although I'm sure they know each other well). Secondly, he's in part built the Braves team that is so good right now, with Austin Riley, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and AJ Minter as All-Stars or big-time contributors that he drafted. He was part of the scouting shop in Atlanta that signed Ronald Acuna, Jr back in 2014, who is now one of the three or four best players on the planet, and also helped orchestrate the Max Fried deal that same year.

The real interesting thing is that previous scouting chief Danny Ontiveros has been promoted from his position to VP of Scouting after just one draft in that job. I don't want to put this past draft completely on blast, but Blake Mitchell really stumbled hard out of the gate this year, and the others that played well in short-season rookie ball have all struggled in their first foray into A-ball with Columbia. While Bridges was part of the team that eventually landed Acuna Jr in Atlanta, his specialty is stateside amateurs, so he's likely coming in with a fresh set of eyes to re-vamp the minor leagues and scouting criteria.

Bigger storyline in 2024 -- new stadium talk, or Bobby Witt Jr extension?

We should know by Opening Day 2024 where the Royals' new home will be, whether it's downtown or just north of the Missouri. I suspect the Royals will begin talks with BWJ on an extension this offseason, if they haven't already done so. That talk is likely to extend into next season, so that's what I'll go with because it's going to be the biggest contract handed down in Royals history, by far.
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Old 09-29-2023, 06:04 PM   #75
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KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON (09/22 -- 09/24)


Series Recap: Houston Astros

By Will Keeler | Kansas City Star | September 25th, 2023


Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
Sep 22nd, 2023123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals (53-101)000001000150
Houston Astros (84-70)31000402X10170
W: Justin Verlander (12-7) L: Jordan Lyles (5-16) S: None

Friday, September 22nd, 2023
Bobby Witt Jr inched further closer to the 30/30 club, hitting his 27th homerun of the season in the sixth inning, a solo shot to cut the lead to three at the time, 4-1. But the Astros scored four in the bottom of the inning on an Alex Bregman grand slam, and then two more in the eighth to run away with a 10-1 win over the Royals to open the series.

Kansas City collected just five hits in the game, with Maikel Garcia getting two of them. One of them was catcher Tyler Cropley's, the first MLB hit of his career.

"I mean, not much else to say here," said manager Matt Quatraro, a bit of an exasperated look on his face. "We just let this one get away from us late."

Long-time Royals nemesis Justin Verlander went eight innings, fanning nine with just the solo homerun from Witt allowed. Ryan Pressly worked a scoreless ninth inning in a non-save situation, his first action in nearly a week.


Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
Sep 23rd, 2023123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals (54-101)000000002240
Houston Astros (84-71)000000001140
W: James McArthur (1-2) L: Framber Valdez (13-13) S: Carlos Hernandez (9)

Saturday, September 23rd, 2023
With one out in the ninth and a man on, Nelson Velazquez lifted a two-run homerun to put the Royals up 2-0; and they would need that extra run as the Astros got one back in the bottom of the ninth.

However, Carlos Hernandez managed to shut the door as the Royals evened their series with the Astros 2-1, giving them their first win over them in five tries. James McArthur picked up the victory in relief for his first MLB win.

It was a fantastic pitching matchup of southpaws, as Cole Ragans and Framber Valdez matched goose eggs through the first seven frames. While Ragans was removed after seven innings, Valdez continued on throughout the game, picking up the rare complete game loss.

Ragans was brilliant, allowing just one hit and walk each while striking out four. Valdez threw 118 pitches, scattering four hits, striking out seven with just a walk. MJ Melendez collected half of the Royals' hits, going 2-for-4 with a double. His thirty-five two-baggers is the most on the team.


Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros
Sep 24th, 2023123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals (54-102)011100020240
Houston Astros (85-71)10000223X8110
W: Ryan Pressly (7-4) L: Jackson Kowar (0-2) S: None

Sunday, September 24th, 2023
Houston scored seven of their eight runs in the sixth inning or later, erasing an early 3-1 Royals lead, and turning it into an 8-5 defeat as the Royals fell to 54-102, just four losses away from tying the franchise record for most defeats in a season. Jackson Kowar was the losing hurler in relief, allowing a couple of homeruns to snap a seven-game scoreless appearance streak.

Bobby Witt Jr and Nelson Velazquez homered, with the latter hitting his 10th homerun of the season to become the fourth Royals hitter to reach the double-digit mark, although three of them came with the Cubs prior to being acquired. Witt also stole a base, giving him thirty-nine on the season.

Steven Cruz pitched as the opener for the second time, allowing a couple of hits and walks, but escaped largely unscathed with just one earned run in his only inning. Alec Marsh was brilliant in relief, pitching four spotless innings with a couple of scattered hits and three strikeouts.

"We were not without offense in this game," said manager Matt Quatraro. "The issue was is that we struggled a bit with putting the ball in play, as we couldn't move runners once we got them on."

Six different Royals collected a pair of hits each. Witt Jr and Velazquez each went for two hits, with Drew Waters, Matt Duffy, Nick Loftin, and Michael Massey also turning the trick.

Today is the second day-off in a recent string of post-series days off, before they begin the final road series of the season at Detroit tomorrow night.

UP NEXT: @ Detroit Tigers (09/26 -- 09/28)
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Old 10-02-2023, 11:03 AM   #76
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KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT (09/26 -- 09/28)


Series Recap: Detroit Tigers

By Will Keeler | Kansas City Star | September 29th, 2023


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Sept 26, 2023123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals (55-102)1002002016100
Detroit Tigers (68-89)000020010362
W: Zack Greinke (10-9) L: Reese Olson (4-3) S: Collin Snider (1)

Tuesday, September 26th, 2023
With shortstop Bobby Witt Jr leading the charge, the Kansas City Royals defeated the Detroit Tigers, 6-3, at Comerica Park. Witt Jr was 3-for-5 with a home run and a double, while scoring three times. His two stolen bases gave him forty-one for the season.

"We're going to be real aggressive with him in these final few games," said manager Matt Quatraro. "I know it might be sacrilege to give away strategy like that, but we're going to try to end this season on a high note, and try to get him to that fifty steals plateau."

Zack Greinke picked up the win with 5 innings of work. He allowed two runs on five hits, while walking only one and striking out three. The victory moves him to 10-9 on the season; winning eight of his last nine starts, with the other start being a no-decision. Collin Snider earned his first save of the season in two chances, tossing three innings of one-run ball.

Southpaw Anthony Veneziano made his MLB debut in the sixth inning, pitching a scoreless inning with a strikeout on nine pitches.


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Sept 27, 20231234567891011RHE
Kansas City Royals (55-103)20101000000491
Detroit Tigers (69-89)110000200026100
W: Matt Wisler (1-3) L: Taylor Clarke (4-5) S: None

Wednesday, September 27th, 2023
Homeruns from Maikel Garcia and Edward Olivares weren't enough in the second game of their series with the Tigers, as Matt Vierling's two-run shot against Taylor Clarke in the bottom of the 11th was the deciding hit in their 6-4 11-inning loss to Detroit.

Bobby Witt Jr inched closer to the 50-steal mark, stealing two more bases as part of a 2-for-4 day. He also still sits a homerun short of the 30-homer mark. His next homerun would put him in very exclusive territory, with thirty homeruns, thirty doubles, and forty steals, which would be the first time that's happened in team history.

It was a team effort on the pitching side, with Jonathan Bowlan getting the start with two innings worked, but allowed two earned runs on three hits, walking a pair and striking out a pair. Taylor Hearn followed him with two more innings of the shutout variety before Steven Cruz followed him with 1 2/3 innings of shutout ball.

Kansas City actually held a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the seventh, but Jackson Kowar allowed a two-run homerun to Spencer Torkelson that tied the game at four each. It's been a bit of a trying season for the former number-one overall pick, as it was just his 17th homerun of the season. After seven straight scoreless appearances, Kowar has allowed five earned runs in his last 3 1/3 innings with a couple of homeruns.

"All bullpen guys go through rough patches," said manager Matt Quatraro. "The key is to keep that patch from turning into a longer stretch."


Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Sept 28, 2023123456789RHE
Kansas City Royals (55-104)0000100006100
Detroit Tigers (70-89)00050000X570
W: Eduardo Rodriguez (12-8) L: Jordan Lyles (5-17) S: None

Thursday, September 28th, 2023
Making perhaps his final start of the season, Jordan Lyles cruised through the first three innings, allowing only a double to Akil Baddoo in the first inning, throwing twenty-six pitches in all. But the fourth inning turned into a nightmare, as Detroit tagged him for five runs alone in that inning, which is all they would need to put the Royals away by a 5-1 score.

Tucker Davidson and Taylor Clarke turned in scoreless outings in relief, combining for 4 1/3 innings. Eduardo Rodriguez worked eight innings for Detroit, striking out a baker's dozen with just one walk, which was Edward Olivares.

The only run for the Royals was courtesy of an RBI triple in the fifth inning from Michael Massey, his third triple of the season. He's had a nice September to date with hits in eleven of his last dozen games, and has slashed .301/.346/.425 (.771 OPS) this month after a solid .760 OPS in August. Both are better than league average marks (111 OPS+).

Kansas City now heads into the final home series of the season, a three-game series with the playoff-bound Yankees. The Yankees can clinch the top wildcard spot with only one win against the Royals.

UP NEXT: vs New York Yankees (09/29 -- 10/01)
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Old 10-05-2023, 12:38 PM   #77
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NY YANKEES @ KANSAS CITY (09/29 -- 10/01)


Series Recap: New York Yankees

By Will Keeler | Kansas City Star | October 2nd, 2023


New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Sept 29, 2023123456789RHE
New York Yankees (94-66)001100500790
Kansas City Royals (55-105)0000030014110
W: Luis Severino (7-11) L: Steven Cruz (0-1) S: None

Friday, September 29th, 2023
Aaron Judge's pair of homeruns proved to be the difference in the Royals' 7-4 defeat to the Yankees to begin the final series of the season. He homered in the third inning against starter Alec Marsh before bopping his second homerun in the seventh against reliever Collin Snider. Despite missing more than a third of the season to date, Judge's homeruns were his 41st and 42nd of the season, second in the AL to Shohei Ohtani.

Every Royals starter collected at least one hit, with Maikel Garcia and MJ Melendez each going 2-for-4, with Garcia adding a free pass as well. Nelson Velazquez hit his first triple of the season that scored two of the Royals' four runs. Michael Massey and Nick Pratto also collected RBI hits in the contest.

The Royals' final pitcher of the evening, Taylor Hearn, was the only pitcher to post a scoreless outing, striking out three over the final two innings. His ERA with the Royals dropped to 3.98, and he has been a nice surprise in the season's second half since being acquired from the Braves just before the deadline.

With six steals, the Royals set a season high in stolen bases for one game, going 6-for-6 with five different players notching steals. Bobby Witt Jr stole two to get him to forty-five steals on the season, while four others stole one each.


New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Sept 30, 2023123456789RHE
New York Yankees (94-67)010001010370
Kansas City Royals (56-105)10015000X7120
W: Cole Ragans (6-3) L: Clarke Schmidt (9-11) S: None

Saturday, September 30th, 2023
With five innings of one-run ball, the Royals' Cole Ragans kept his spotless record since joining the Royals intact with a 7-3 victory over the Yankees. The win moves him to 4-0 in ten starts (eleven total appearances) with the Royals, and he's been arguably the best pitcher in the AL down the stretch since the trade deadline.

"He's really leaned into that slider that has been so effective for him these past few months," said manager Matt Quatraro. "That pitch is quite the weapon for him, and I'm really glad he's taken it upon himself to really hone it. It's what's made him so effective against both sides of the plate."

In his five innings of work, Ragans allowed just four hits and one walk while fanning a half-dozen. Taylor Hearn, Tucker Davidson, and Carlos Hernandez combined to pitch the final four innings, with Hernandez pitching the only clean inning of the three.

Michael Massey and Nelson Velazquez each hit homeruns, their ninth and eleventh of the season to date. Eight of Velazquez's homeruns have come since joining the Royals back on August 1st. Nick Pratto was 3-for-3 with a walk, and Salvador Perez was 2-for-3, including a two-run double.


New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Oct 1, 2023123456789RHE
New York Yankees (95-67)5000500031390
Kansas City Royals (56-106)2011002006101
W: Carlos Rodon (12-3) L: Zack Greinke (10-10) S: None

Sunday, October 1st, 2023
With his first-inning homerun on Sunday afternoon, Bobby Witt Jr launched himself into team and league history, becoming the youngest player ever to hit 30 doubles, 30 homeruns, and steal 45 bases in a season. He's also the first player in team history to hit 30 homeruns and steal 40 or more bases.

In addition, he joined Eric Davis, Bobby Bonds, Mike Trout, and Alex Rodriguez as the only players in league history to hit 30 homeruns and steal at least 45 bases. Oh, and he tied for the league lead in triples with six.

However, it was the playoff-bound Yankees that got the last laugh, pounding the Royals 13-6 in what might be the last career start for Zack Greinke, who was tagged with the loss to fall to 10-10 on the season. The loss ties the team record for the most losses in a season, with the 2005 Royals also losing 106 games.

Kansas City now heads into the offseason with a load of uncertainty, as Greinke potentially could be headed out the door for good; and the year for roster evaluation according to first-year manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo is now over.

Catcher Salvador Perez (who homered in the loss) and starting pitcher Brady Singer were also rumored to be on the trading block at the deadline, so it's possible they've played their last games in a Royals uniform.

"Yeah, there are some decisions that we now have to make," Quatraro said in his final post-game interview. "It's been a tough year, there's no doubt about that, but the way I see it, I'm excited to see what we can do this offseason. Going to be a lot of difficult, but rewarding conversations."

UP NEXT: End of season
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Old 10-13-2023, 11:12 AM   #78
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WILDCARD RECAP (10/07)



WILDCARD RECAP
10/07/2023


Three of the four series went the full three games, with the Orioles' two-game sweep of the Yankees the only one that did not go the distance. Baltimore will go on to face the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays beginning tomorrow night, with the Rangers and Astros meeting in the other ALDS series tomorrow as well. On the National League side, the Dodgers and Marlins moved on with 2-1 series victories over the Giants and Brewers, respectively. Miami and second-seeded Arizona will face off in one NLDS matchup, while the top-seeded Braves and Dodgers will be pitted against each other in the other NLDS series.

In the Orioles sweep of New York in the Bronx, Ryan Mountcastle was named the series MVP, going 6-for-11 (.545) with a homerun and five RBI, all in the first game on October 4th. He was 2-for-4 in the series finale, which they won 7-6, and scored three runs in all. Baltimore had lost five straight playoff games coming in, last winning the ALDS back in 2014 in a 3-0 sweep of the Detroit Tigers before losing in four games to the Royals in the ALCS. Before this season, their last playoff appearance was in 2016, losing the Wildcard matchup 5-2 to division rival Toronto.

The other AL Wildcard series saw the Twins finally snap a 19-game postseason losing streak with a win in the second game, but have now lost twenty of their last twenty-one postseason games dating back to October 5th, 2004 as it will be an all-Texas ALDS with the Rangers and Astros doing battle. After his first full season in which he smacked thirty homeruns, Josh Jung easily earned the series' MVP honors, going 8-for-14 with three homeruns, three doubles, and eight RBI.

Moving to the NL, one side of the bracket has the Dodgers and Braves in one NLDS series, while the D-Backs and Marlins square off in the other with those series beginning tonight. The former two came into this season with high expectations, with only one of them being able to keep on going after the series is over. The latter series involves a pair of teams coming off losing seasons in 2022, with the Marlins going 69-93, and a tumultuous 74-88 season for Arizona. The two teams combined to improve their W-L records by thirty-four games, Miami going +18 over last season and Arizona +16.

After getting blanked by Corbin Burnes in Game 1, the Marlins rallied to win Games 2 and 3, with rookie shortstop Jacob Amaya winning MVP honors for the series. He went 5-for-8 with two doubles, a homerun, and two runs scored in the three games, all starts. He took over as the team's primary shortstop in late July, starting fifty-nine of the sixty games he played in for Miami and posted a solid 115 OPS+ in 226 PA.

The other series also saw an unlikely MVP named, with Dodgers closer Evan Phillips getting the nod. He picked up the two-inning victory in Game 1, and picked up the two-inning save in the clincher for Game 3. He was flat-out dominant, facing a dozen hitters and retiring them all, including four on strikes. Dodgers catcher Will Smith was the hero in Game 1 offensively, driving in the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth with a single.

Smith also played a key role in the Game 3 win, going 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI. But Phillips stole the show ultimately, as he barely missed the strike zone in both of his outings. Of his thirty-eight pitches thrown over four innings of work, Phillips landed twenty-eight of them in the zone.



Last edited by artoodeetoo; 10-13-2023 at 01:38 PM.
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Old 10-13-2023, 11:48 AM   #79
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WHERE DO THE ROYALS GO FROM HERE? (10/07)



2023-4 OFFSEASON ANALYSIS: WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
10/07/2023


With the 2023 season now in the rearview and the playoffs in full swing, the Royals will now begin the process of working on the 2024 roster. Before the season, both GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro spoke at length that this was a "season of evaluation", and that the real building of the organization would come in the second year for both of them. Well, now is that time. In his year-end presser with the local media, Picollo did note that some players "didn't meet expectations", and that they have some difficult decisions to make.

Right now, the Royals only have two veteran contracts on the books for next season -- Salvador Perez is due $20 million, while Jordan Lyles is slated to earn $8.5 million in 2024. Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, and Matt Duffy are departing free agents, although they may choose to bring any or all of them back. Picollo has already said that Lyles is going to occupy one of the starting slots (yay?), so there's that. Greinke, who will be entering his age-40 season in 2024, has also not made a decision on whether or not to hang up the cleats.

They have eight arbitration-eligible players, but really only four are considered to be locks or near-locks to be tendered contracts -- outfielder Edward Olivares and pitchers Brady Singer, Carlos Hernandez, and Kris Bubic. Bubic will be an interesting case since he went out so early in the season, as it will likely cost him some money. On the other hand, that savings could be used elsewhere by the club.

Righty reliever Josh Staumont is the most likely to not be offered a contract, as he's walked nearly 16% of hitters the last two seasons, and a slightly above-average whiff rate of 25.8% isn't going to be enough to counter that high walk rate.

That leaves the Taylors (Clarke, Hearn, and Josh Taylor) in the middle. Hearn was much-maligned at the time of the deal, but he's actually been a fairly solid southpaw arm out of the bullpen that made a few 'opener' starts. His whiff rate of 25.7% is right about where Staumont is, but a much more palatable 11.7% walk rate gives him a much better shot at sticking around. Fangraphs has Hearn with a $1.45 million arbitration figure, while Josh Taylor comes in right at $1.2 million. With a payroll that could be as tight as the Royals' next year, even an extra $250K could matter despite his injury history.

"Whether it's eight million, eighty million, one hundred million, we'll have to make the best with what we have," he said rather bluntly to a reporter that brought up the payroll for next season. "There are teams that have won the World Series with lesser payrolls than what we had this past season, so it's about spending what you have wisely, and not so much how much you have."

Clarke looked like a solid, worthwhile signing for the 2022 season on the cheap after Arizona non-tendered him prior to that year, but slipped badly in 2023, seeing his walk rate jump from 4% to 9.5%, and his strikeout rate dip from nearly 24% to 22.8%. Not surprisingly, his FIP and SIERA suffered for it, with the FIP making the biggest drop from 3.36 to 5.19 year-over-year, while his SIERA stayed relatively solid at 3.82, falling only from 3.01. His HR/9 also went up from 1.1 to 1.8.

Additionally, they still owe Hunter Dozier $9.5 million for next season, which will figure heavily into the calculus for how they approach free agency. The most likely avenue to improve the team will be via trades, something that Picollo has not been shy to do (and his deadline trades have largely been solid so far).
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Old 10-17-2023, 10:17 AM   #80
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DIVISIONAL SERIES RECAP (10/15)



DIVISIONAL SERIES RECAP
10/15/2023


Much like the Wildcard series, three out of the four Divisional Series went the full distance, with only the Diamondbacks-Marlins series going less than five games, with Arizona winning that series 3-to-1 to clinch their first NLCS appearance in sixteen years, when they were swept in four games by a red-hot Rockies team that ended that year on a 20-plus game winning streak. Tonight, on four days of rest, the Diamondbacks will face off against Atlanta to open the NLCS against Braves, who wrapped up their series with the Dodgers just two nights ago, winning in dramatic fashion on a walk-off homerun from Orlando Arcia.

Arcia had an impressive series against L.A., going 8-for-21 with three homeruns with a pair of doubles and five runs scored. What was even more impressive was his walk-off homerun came against Evan Phillips, who had tossed eight shutout innings with just one hit and walk allowed; striking out nine with three saves and one victory in the playoffs to date prior to Game 5.

"There was no way we weren't driving home tonight without the victory in hand," said catcher Sean Murphy. "(Evan) Phillips came in tonight as one of the best we've faced all year, but Orlando came up huge with the homerun. I've never been part of a more electric atmosphere than what we all saw out there."

Arizona is arguably the most unlikely left to reach the postseason, even though they won a tough NL West with 90 wins, a 16-game improvement over 2022. They were 1-5 against Atlanta this season, winning their first game of the season against them at home on June 2nd; but then lost the next five, including a road sweep at Truist Park.

League MVP candidate Christian Walker was the MVP of their NLDS matchup with Miami, going 9-for-17 (.528) with three homeruns. He fell just one homerun shy of his career high this season, but smacked 44 doubles and posted his second straight season with a 120 OPS+ or better.

The ALCS will feature a pair of teams that are ending long ALCS droughts -- the Orioles haven't been this deep in the postseason since 2014, while the Rangers are making their first ALCS since 2011, when they went to back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011, only to lose to the Giants (2010) and the Cardinals (2011). Baltimore lost all four games of the 2014 ALCS to Kansas City, who went on to fall in seven games to the Giants in the Fall Classic.

After earning MVP honors in the Wildcard series with the Yankees, Baltimore first baseman Ryan Mountcastle backed that up with MVP honors in the Orioles/Rays ALDS, going 7-for-19 (.368), with a homerun, double, a walk, and two steals. However, the Orioles' bullpen collectively might have been the most impressive unit in the series. Over the final four games, the Baltimore bullpen allowed one earned run over 16 2/3 innings. In the Game 5 clincher, Keegan Akin and Kyle Gibson combined for six shutout innings, with Gibson earning his first career playoff save by tossing 3 1/3 scoreless.

Texas' Josh Jung was another back-to-back MVP winner, taking home ALDS MVP honors by going 7-for-24 (.291) at the plate, hitting a couple of homeruns, including a solo shot in the Rangers' epic 18-inning win over the Astros to punch their ALCS ticket. Corey Seager also homered in that inning, a two-run homerun that put the game seemingly out of reach, as the Astros went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 18th on just five pitches. Jung has had a memorable first postseason, hitting .405 (15-for-37) with five homeruns, eleven runs scored, and three doubles.


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