Playoffs!? Playoffs???
Report by Matt Schmidlin | December 9, 2022
How will CC Week Impact the CFP?
With a number of teams in the mix for the 4-team (for how much longer?) College Football Playoff, let's take standing of who's who entering this dramatic final week before bowl season.
Who's In: LSU
The Tigers are 12-0, have dominated every opponent on their schedule and haven't won a game by LESS than two touchdowns so far this season. Even if every one loss team won in conference championship week, the strength of record of LSU would likely get them in unless they lose by triple figures to South Carolina.
Probably In: Pitt
When you're 12-0 entering conference championship week, you have to feel fairly safe in the playoff field. However, a hefty dosage of one loss schools in play this weekend means the Panthers can't punch their ticket to the playoff field just yet. Wins by Clemson, OU, PSU, and Washington would certainly make things a little dicey, with then 5 1-loss P5 teams in the mix for 3 spots. However, Pitt would have the best loss of the bunch if they hang tough with a Top-5 Clemson squad, and unless they falter by a bajillion you have to think Panthers fan can probably start looking into some travel arrangements.
Win and They're In: Oklahoma, Clemson
The Sooners are the defending national champs, they have just a single one point blemish on the schedule, and otherwise have completed a murderer's row of blowouts similar to the likes of LSU. If the Sooners are 12-0 they're likely the undisputed title favorites and #1 seed. As it stands, they'll need to fend off a frisky Houston squad that features a talented backfield in order to secure their spot in the field.
If Clemson beats Pitt, they're in. No ifs, and, or buts about it. The Tigers would finally have a marquee victory with the win over #2 Pitt, and their single loss is to a talented Top-20 Oklahoma State squad that just missed the Big XII title game. If Clemson loses, maybe they're in the conversation but their resume likely requires them to win to be a no doubter.
Might Need Some Help: Penn State, Washington
Penn State theoretically should be a win and you're in team, but if Clemson stuns the Panthers and rest of the weekend goes chalk, then the Nittany Lions may need some help from the committee. While running off an impressive string of wins, PSU just hasn't appeared as dominant across the board as some of the other contenders, though they do boast a Heisman contender at quarterback. If Pitt knocks off the Tigers though and PSU wins, they should be a lock.
Washington's strength of record is really what holds them back. With a weak non-conference schedule and a down year for the Pac-12 in the national rankings, the Huskies won't really have any big wins on the resume, more just wins than anything else. Losses in the top 5 will be what the Huskies need alongside a win over a smoking hot UCLA squad.
Not a Snowball's Chance... Maybe: Ball State, Cincinnati, South Carolina
"They ain't played nobody, PAWLLLL!" Ball State and Cincinnati are likely in the same boat here. Should the Cardinals beat a solid Buffalo squad, they're going to be sitting at 13-0, but I don't think the committee would give them any sniff of the field. Their average opponent record is something like 4-8. Cincinnati would've had a significant chance to be in the field with how dominant they have looked all season, but a late loss to Tulane in heartbreaking fashion likely cooks the Bearcats unless every one loss team falters this weekend, and even then it probably isn't enough.
The most intriguing team here is South Carolina. The Gamecocks have been very impressive this season, and if they can knock off the NCAA's most dominant team in convincing fashion, and get a LOT of help from other teams on the outside (Houston, Nebraska, UCLA), maybe they have a case.
Sound Off: Who do you think wins this weekend and stamps their ticket to the 'Final Four'?