For me, the thing about Cerrone 'clicking' late is that he only does that against B-level fighters and opponents whose striking isn't on par with his. His win over Iaquinta was nice, but I'd put him in that category too, albeit a strong B. Before then, the last "good" win that Cerrone had was probably Benson and that feels like forever ago.
I really hope that he surprises me and tries to get Conor to the ground, as you suggested. If he goes that route I like his chances much more.
I just get the feeling that Cowboy will want to dance with Conor. I'm fully expecting to see him giving us one of those "Aw shucks" and a half-smile at the end of the fight after Conor pieces him up. But who knows, maybe Conor will look terrible. I'm interested to see how it plays out either way. The rest of the card sure isn't doing it for me.