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Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
If this November's election ends up basically just being a re-run of 2020, then I suspect the above narrative is correct.
I'm clinging to the hope that what's really happening with the polls is that Trump continues to be at the peak of his support, since his hard-core support never wavers, and a lot of people inclined to vote Democrat are saying they're not going to vote for Biden to send a message. Then, in November, the latter group will grit their teeth and vote for Biden because they feel the alternative is too terrible, and in addition a lot of people who say now that they're going to vote for Trump are hoping (again) that he'll moderate himself, and when he doesn't, will stay home.
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I'd still probably put money on Biden pulling it out in the end in a very tight race. I think Trump has benefited a bit from being out of the limelight. And I do think the DNC will be much more organized than the RNC which just seems like a slush fund for Trump at this point. That stuff does matter in very tight races.
But the Middle East is the huge variable in this. If we do get a war with Iran which seems more and more likely, I think Biden is cooked. And we know Netanyahu will do everything in his power to get Trump back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by flere-imsaho
Like so many things, this only matters for the Democrat, as Trump is even worse when he speaks.
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Biden is the incumbent and has to run on his record. We know Trump is mostly just going to run a nativist campaign and you don't need to be particularly insightful to do that.
It's a huge disadvantage that Biden can't speak about the economy being better since it's hurting him in the polls. Say what you want about Obama, but he'd have been on Jimmy Fallon appealing to suburban voters. He'd be boasting about policy wins at press conferences and events. Having publicized meet and greets with women impacted by the abortion basn. Biden can't do that and thus is unable to control the narrative of his Presidency.