It really is a chicken/egg question as to whether the ‘consensus’ best QBs in the draft(s) are just misidentified or not developed by teams. The fact that guys like Brady, Mahomes, Lamar, and Rodgers have been among the most successful despite being passed on by more than half the league doesn’t make anything any more clear.
Here’s a McShay article from 2018 that does not hold up well.
Todd McShay's NFL draft grades for every first-round QB since 2008, plus 2018's top QBs - ESPN
Of guys over the past 15-20 years, I think I would’ve bet on Burrow, Lawrence, Winston, Newton, and Luck - with no titles and two of them already out