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Short term - Russia annexes the Donbass regions, installs pro-Russia lackey, deploys nukes to Ukraine and half his army along the borders with NATO countries, digs in for Afghanistan 2.0
Long term - lots of brinksmanship, worst case is North Korea with the second largest nuclear power in the world who can wipe any country off the map if they so choose. Hopefully China stays out of it and doesn’t do something similar with Taiwan while the west is focused on Europe not getting overrun again.
Only way out of this appears to be somebody deposing Putin somehow, maybe a collection of oligarchs and military who say enough is enough. I have no idea how realistic that really is though.
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