Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Prediction Market Inefficiency (or ping: Quicksand)

QuikSand · 08-04-2015, 08:59 PM

Okay, with your initial question - I think rather than profit-maximizing, what you really want is risk minimization here. Ideally, you'd like to lock up your account to ensure a winning total position. And betting against the whole field in varying amounts seems like the way to do that most readily, with the absurd odds and narrow buy/sell spreads that they currently show.

My first thought is basically to bet enough to profit basically the same total amount from each candidate who loses.

08-04-2015, 08:59 PM	#4
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Okay, with your initial question - I think rather than profit-maximizing, what you really want is risk minimization here. Ideally, you'd like to lock up your account to ensure a winning total position. And betting against the whole field in varying amounts seems like the way to do that most readily, with the absurd odds and narrow buy/sell spreads that they currently show. My first thought is basically to bet enough to profit basically the same total amount from each candidate who loses. Last edited by QuikSand : 08-04-2015 at 09:00 PM.