Quote:
Originally Posted by cartman
You are assuming a single deck situation, when most of the time there are 6 to 8 decks in play. The number of decks greatly changes the odds.
Another way to look at it is you are depending on the dealer to bust when you have A-9 and then double down. There is only one card (A) that can help you improve, a bunch of cards that keep you at the same level (Faces and 10s) which can be bust cards for the dealer, and the rest lower your position.
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He is also leaving out the unknown dealer card.
Most blackjack formulas *I think* assume a worst case, i.e. dealer has a pocket face card, lowering your odds a minor amount.
Butt moreover the formula is designed to maximize won hands not maximize dollars won.